Majority of experts still expect no February rate change from RBA: Finder

Majority of experts still expect no February rate change from RBA: Finder
Jessie RichardsonDecember 7, 2020

Most of the 30 experts surveyed by comparison website Finder predict that the official cash rate will remain at its record low of 2.5% for February.

However, Bill Evans of Westpac and Nathan McMullan of RAMS believe there will be some move from the Reserve Bank at today's meeting.

According to Finder, this is the first time since August 2013 that any respondents for their Reserve Bank Survey have predicted a rate change.

Of the 30 experts, 18 expect a cash rate change in 2015, with nine anticipating a change in the first quarter of the year. It seems the last month has given the experts much to think about, with only three survey respondents predicting a first quarter change when surveyed last month.

There is no consensus on whether the next cash rate movement will be upwards or downwards. A slight majority – 16 of the 30 respondents – predict the next change will be an increase, while the remainder believe the Reserve Bank will lower rates first.

Falling oil prices, low consumer confidence, labour force uncertainty and the Australian dollar were all raised by the expert panel.

Shane Oliver, head of Investment Strategy and chief economist of AMP Capital, said: "The RBA at its last meeting in December reiterated that a period of stability in interest rates remained prudent and since then strong data for jobs and building approvals has offset softness in economic growth and inflation indicators."

Meanwhile, NAB's Alan Oster said it was "too early to cut" rates.

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