Should you fix your mortgage now? The experts have their say
With economists predicting official interest rate rises next year and banks starting raise their fixed rates, we spoke to mortgage experts to ask if now is the right time to moved your mortgage to a fixed rate.
Shane Oliver – Head of investment strategy and chief economist, AMP Capital 
FIX FOR THREE YEARS
The best thing to do is fix when interest rates are at a low level. Some people make the mistake of only fixing after interest rates have been up for a while and they find they are locked in at the top. Right now we’re either at or close to the bottom of the interest rate cycle so it does make sense to start to lock in a relatively low interest rate.
Soon the cycle will start to go back up again and it will get more expensive to lock in as interest rates go up. In fact some banks have already increased interest rates – a month ago a few of them raised interest rates. They’re still at relatively low levels, and given the fixed rates at the moment are fairly close to the variable rates, you’re looking somewhere in the 5% to 5.5% zone depending on the sort of deal you get in that range. It makes sense to lock in now because the question a borrower needs to ask is what they think the variable rate will average over the rate they might fix. At the moment you can lock in for three years somewhere at 5 and 5.5%, depending on the bank. The likelihood is the rates will average above that over the next three years so you might end up paying a little bit more initially but over the course of three years you’ll probably find the variable rate will go up again and average more than they are at the moment.
I think the best deals are around two to three years. I’d probably lock in around there rather than the five year rates as they tend to be somewhat more expensive. What we have seen in the economy this year is longer term borrowing costs start to rise. We’re still quite low but as those longer term borrowing costs start to rise as evidenced by rising government bond deals it will eventually start to put upwards pressure on fixed mortgage rates. And there’s also signs that the interest rate cycle will turn up more generally and the reserve bank will follow that. It does make sense to lock in. But it’s always the case not to do the whole lot. If you fix the lot you’re locked in if you want to pay some of it off in a hurry it’s often a bit harder and can work against you. And if you fix a portion of it then in the off-chance interest rates fall then you can lock the rest in. It’s probably best to do it on a partial basis rather than fix the whole lot.
Lisa Montgomery - Chief executive officer, Resi 
FIX A PORTION FOR ONE TO THREE YEARS
That downward trend of rates in the fixed space looks like it’s hit its bottom and it probably did that around six to eight weeks ago. Since then we’ve seen an increase in mainly the three and five year rates of about 20 to 30 basis points. For those people who have been looking for the lowest point in the market I’d suggest they may have missed that. However there are still some excellent rates out there in the fixed space and a lot of people are still looking to do that given there have been a few murmurings about rates increasing next year. Probably not in the first quarter of next year but there’s the potential of that trend changing and rates rising into 2014 is a real prospect and so fixed rates are still appealing to borrowers.
So there are some great deals out there in the one, three and five year spaces. But five years is a really long time to fix your rate in. If you’re looking to fix in then maybe you’re looking at that one and three year period. But only if you’re looking for the certainty and you’re really looking for that stability because there are still some really good rates in the variable space and those rates have gone downwards since November 2011 and we saw some great rates in the variable space. But of course fixed rates have been very popular as we’ve seen many folks taking up these opportunities.
Fixing in some and leaving the rest variable is a good option. That means you’re not placing the entire loan amount into a fixed arrangement and you’re keeping a bit more flexibility in the variable portion of the loan and hedging your bets along the way. That option has been very popular with borrowers and will probably remain to be until next year.
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Alex Parsons - Chief executive officer, RateCity 
FIX A PORTION OF THE LOAN
The banks’ three, four and five year fixed rates are moving up. Their perspective is interest rates are going to increase over time. On that basis after the last couple of years of a downward cycle we are bottoming out. And we are at the start of an upward cycle. The RBA put out another .25 drop in August, I don’t think they’re be a change early next year downwards. We’re at historic lows, the historic average for variable is around the 7% mark, we’re at least two percentage points below that.
One year fixed rates are still really competitive, there’s no doubt about that. I guess the average property buyer overlooks the fact they don’t need to have all their eggs in one basket. They can fix a portion of their loan and have a portion of it variable. It’s up to them. I do that myself. On the basis of that you have your feet in both camps. If one moves wildly you can only be half wrong.
The only risk is if there’s another quarter percent drop today or in February. Risk is not binary there’s a spectrum of risk and the spectrum of risk for fixing is relatively low. You’re not going to fix today on 5% for example and then have rates drop another 100 basis points. The risk is lower now than it has been in the past or will be in the future.
The banks all employ serious economists and they adjust their rates on the basis of internal analysis. When you start to see longer term fixed rates go up, you’ve got to think that’s their perspective. You look at their record and they make massive amounts of profits. Three, four and five year fixed rates have been moving up over the past few months.
Ross Le Quesne - Mortgage broker, Aussie Home Loans
FIX FOR THREE YEARS
Definitely fix. A lot of my investors are fixing now. A lot of them are getting fairly good yields right now, around 6-7%, so they’re looking at locking in that yield. Rates are the bottom of the cycle. Three year fixed year rates have moved up .2% so it looks like we’re at the bottom. A lot of my investors carry quite a bit of debt because they have a number of properties. For example if someone has 1.5 million in debt and rates rise 1.5% that’s an extra $22,500 of net income they have to come up with. It’s a risk minimisation to fix. Over the next two to three years you know where your cash flow sits and by doing that you’re going to be covered if rates were to rise.
It’s proven we’re at the bottom of the market seeing the three rates have just bounced off the bottom. If you look at the history of interest rates since the GFC, the lowest rates were around 4.99%. As Mark Twain said, history doesn’t repeat itself but it does rhyme. If you look where we are it’s rhyming at the moment. It’s just come off the low which means we are at the bottom of the market. If you’re looking to lock then there’s no better time than now, or even better two months ago.
I deal with a lot of investors; with owner occupier it’s different. For an owner occupier, I’d say part fixed part variable. For owner occupiers their goals are to pay their loan off as quickly as possible and have the flexibility of a variable rate. For investors I say fix 100%, for owner occupiers definitely partially fix, maybe at 70/30 or 50/50.
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Jessica Darnbrough - Spokesperson, Mortgage Choice
SPEAK TO YOUR BROKER
Ultimately, I shouldn’t say one way or the other. Fixed rates are very competitive at the moment, if people are looking to fix in then now is a good time to do so. Interest rates are going up from here; it’s probably as low as it’s going to be.
Whatever they feel comfortable with is best at the end of the day. It’s very popular for both owner occupiers and investors right now, so have a chat to your broker and your advisor and see what situation you're most comfortable with.
We see that three year rates are most popular among fixed rates, that’s what people tend to go for – it’s not too long or too short. But before fixing really weigh up your options.
Rates are arguably going to rise from here at some point in the future. But our variable rates at the moment are so competitive, it might be the case you feel more comfortable in a variable rate. Do whatever you feel most comfortable with. If you do need so surety around your finances then now would be a good time to fix.