Economists favour rate cut on August 6: Bloomberg survey

The majority of economists expect the RBA to cut the cash rate to a new record low of 2.5% on August.

Of the 28 economists polled by Bloomberg just before the weekend, 22 expect the RBA to reduce the cash rate to fall by 25 basis points.

ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan is the most notable exception among the six economists expecting the RBA to hold fire.

The others are from Deutsche Bank, J.P. Morgan, Merrill Lynch, QIC and TD Securities.

looking beyond August, no further rate cut is forecast on September 3 with all economists' surveyed maintaining their August positions.

Beyond September and views are quite divergent.

Macquarie Research and Westpac's Bill Evans foresee a 2% cash rate, the former before the end of the year and the later by the first quarter 0f 2014.

However, Shane Oliver from AMP Capital, expects the cash rate to start rising from the first quarter of 2014 to 2.75% and to reach 3.5% by the end of 2014.

The median view is a cash rate of 2.63% (so either 2.5% or 2.75%) by the end of 2014 - suggesting rates could remain low throughout next year.

Larry Schlesinger

Larry Schlesinger

Larry Schlesinger was a property writer at Property Observer


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