Wet winter days can impact auction results: Paul Osborne
The weekend of June 1 saw the start of winter auctions for 2013.
A running joke in the industry is that if you’re a buyer intending to bid on a weekend auction - pray that it rains!
We at Secret Agent wanted to ask ourselves a very simple question. Could rain affect auction prices?
Would it have a detrimental effect on property pricing?
Our initial thoughts were that it wouldn’t impact results. If a buyer was set to bid on a property, the weather wouldn’t impact the way a serious purchaser would peruse it.
However, we started following some interesting research on the correlation of stock market performance and the weather, and this started our quest to establish if in fact the Melbourne property market was influenced by the weather.
The research mentioned was prepared by the University of Berkeley, and compared the DowJones Industrials and weather patterns from 1948 - 2010.
The market recorded an average reduction of 2.8% on cloudy days over that time period (62 years of data).
We looked at the winter months when an auction occurred on a wet day (i.e. more than 4mm of rain) and there was an average price difference of of 5% less as opposed to auctions that took place on a dry day with less than 4mm of rain.
This finding was compiled with 2012 Melbourne sales results that occurred on a Saturday (i.e. at auction) between June and August 2012.
- Average auction result with less than 4mm of rain, $1,003,300
- Average auction result with 4mm or more of rain, $956,800
The lower 5% difference could be expected for property owners auctioning on a rainy day!
The one saving grace to this situation is that some correlations over the past decade show that prices on a whole are stronger in winter than those at other points in the year.
The reason for this is the scarcity of stock in winter. A vendor could be wise to sell in winter, but only on a dry day!
Paul Osborne is managing director of buyers' advocate Secret Agent.
