Melbourne's inner south property values to fall the most: Moody's Analytics
House values in Melbourne's inner south are set for the biggest price drop over the next two years, according to Moody's Analytics CoreLogic's Hedonic House Value Index.
The latest figures suggest the area will see a 2.5 percent house price value drop, followed by a 5.5 percent decrease in 2019.
House values in the inner south area fell in April for the first time since the end of 2012.
Housing supply has ramped up significantly in recent years and remains elevated by historical standards, with a strong pipeline of completions ahead.
This correction in the housing demand/supply balance is likely to see home values in Melbourne’s inner suburbs continue to decline, CoreLogic suggest.
The weakness is expected to be most acute in the inner south, where home values are projected to fall until mid-2020.
Similarly, apartment prices in the Inner South are projected to start falling from mid-2018, before firming by mid-2019.
For Melbourne-Inner and the Inner East, home values are expected to fall until the first half of 2019, after which a modest recovery is likely to take hold.
Apartment prices there are expected to hold up relatively well, with the price gains likely to continue.
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Melbourne's house price growth has slid for 11 consecutive months and fell in April to a 62-month low of 3.1 percent y/y.
The slowdown is most pronounced in Melbourne’s inner suburbs. House values in Melbourne's inner east edged up just 0.3% y/y, a 11⁄2-year low.
Apartment price growth is also cooling. Apartment values in Greater Melbourne were up 5.7% y/y in April, a 15-month low, with the Inner South leading the slowdown.
The downswing has not been confined just to Melbourne’s inner suburbs, with house values across Victoria generally rising at a slower pace.
In Melbourne’s outer suburbs, where house prices recorded stellar double-digit growth through 2017, growth has also decelerated markedly.
Annual house price growth is down at a 38-month low in the North East; a 35-month low in the North West; a 19-month low in the Outer East; a 16-month low in the South East; a 34-month low in the West, and a 20-month low in the Mornington Peninsula.
Geelong is bucking the trend in the rest of Victoria.
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It saw a 10.6 percent house price value increase in 2017, and is set to see those prices soar another 12.3 percent this year and then a further 11.2 percent in 2019.
Ballarat is set to see consistent house price growth, as is the north west region.
Sydney's biggest drops are predicted to be in Ryde and the inner city and south areas while Brisbane has seen off the worst of its price falls.
Nationally there's set to be a cool, but no crash.