Further interest rate cuts risk a boom and bust for Victoria's new home market: Paul Ciprian
The Victorian new homes market risked heading into new boom and bust cycle if interest rates had been cut this week.
We have seen a 25% jump in activity off the back of the 0.25% rate cut in February.
The Reserve Bank needs to exercise caution with the interest levers or we risk another boom bust cycle.
The entire housing market was building a head of steam with record clearances and top prices paid on the weekend.
The new homes market in Melbourne's growth areas was in equilibrium for the first time in decades with supply and demand in a long term balance.
The entire industry prefers stability to boom and bust and right now we have a uniform market that is good for both vendors and purchasers.
Oliver Hume Research has found the growth areas property market is underpinned by strong population growth but increased land supply has seen land prices constrained at an average $197,000 - well below the 2009 peak of $225,000.
The current low interest rate environment was a major incentive that, combined with new housing styles, promoted affordability, and this could be at risk.
There are more 50,000 new home starts forecast for 2015 with numbers expected to climb through to a peak in 2017.
There are 143 projects active in Melbourne's growth areas with 140,000 blocks approved for development and many more coming through the approvals process , according to our research.
Other sectors of the economy may need some interest rate relief but the housing policy levers in Victoria are working very well with no price inflation on the horizon.
Paul Ciprian is new communities director with Oliver Hume.
