Dwelling approvals up 3.1% in September: State by state round-up

There was a 3.1% increase in total dwelling approvals nationwide for the 2014 September quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS).

The rise in residential building approvals has now lasted over two years, although the peak in monthly approvals appears to have been reached earlier in the year, first in July 2014 with 195,565 approvals and then again in August 2014 with 197,887 approvals. After these peaks, national levels of dwelling approvals are beginning to show signs of moderating.

A ‘changing of the guard’ is currently taking place. NSW and WA used to lead the course but it is now Victoria, Queensland and South Australia (on a smaller scale) who are emerging as the key drivers of national approval growth grates. However, this may not mean national rates will rise again.

Detached house approvals

• There was a 60.2% of total approvals compared with the decade average of 64.7%
• Approvals are now tracking sideways
• Victoria, NSW and Queensland are the main drivers of growth in this area of approvals
• Shown the strongest potential for growth but it is unclear whether this will be able to occur within the current cycle

 Semi-detached and townhouse approvals

• 13.0% rate compared with the decade average of 13.7%
• Victoria and NSW account for just over half of Australia’s semi-detached and townhouse approvals, the annual increase in these states during the September quarter were 10% and 28.8%, respectively. These were not strong enough to counter the decrease that other states experienced. This drop was particularly evident in Queensland, where this category of approvals decreased by 27.7%.

Approvals for units in one or two storey buildings

• 3.3% share, compared with the decade average of 3.0%
• Had sharp declines but there has been a turnaround
• The only declines were seen in South Australia and the Northern Territory

Approvals for units in three storey building

• 3.6% share, compared with the decade average of 2.7%
• After rates stagnated in late 2013 and early 2014 there is now signs strong growth
• Levels historically elevated in WA and Victoria

Approvals for units in four plus storey buildings

• 19.9% share compared with decade average of 15.9%
• Approvals began to drop after they had been at their highest rate ever recorded. 
• Previous signs of decline still evident, but overall levels still historically elevated
• Declines driven by NSW and Victoria

NSW

During September 2014 quarter NSW was down 6.7% on total approvals compared to this time last year. It was the only major driver of approval rates to experience a decline.

Three storey dwellings and four plus storey dwellings dropped 39.1% and 36% respectively. Annual detached house approvals were up 21%.

VIC

Victoria had an 8.3% rise in total approvals for the September 2014 quarter compared to the 2013 quarter. Annual detached house approvals were up 12.7% whilst one or two storey dwelling approvals were up 67% on last year. Three storey units had an increase of 88%.  

WA

In the September 2014 quarter WA experienced an increase in approvals by 13%. This was an unusual result for WA.

One to two storey dwelling approvals were up 37.8% on last year.

Three storey units saw a rise from 18 in the September 2013 quarter to 241 in the 2014 quarter. Outside of WA the key drivers of the annual rise in September 2014 quarter was Queensland where these approvals more than doubled.

SA

South Australia only experienced rises in detached housing and four plus storey approvals yet there was still a 6.7% increase in total approvals for the September 2014 quarter.  

One or two storey approvals declined from 62 in September 2013 quarter to 45 in September 2014 quarter.

QLD

There was a 6.4% increase in approvals for the September 2014 quarter.

Annual detached house approvals were up 12.5%.

For one to two storey buildings Queensland recorded the strongest annual growth (91%) however this reflects a weak base. Deeper inspection shows current levels in Queensland are just shy of historical norms.

ACT

The ACT experienced a decrease in approvals of 31.5%.

One or two storey buildings declined from 24 in 2013 September quarter to 21 in the 2014 quarter.

Three storey unit approvals rose 79% this quarter.

NT

Northern Territory had a decrease in approvals of 12.5%

The NT was the only state to have a decline in detached dwellings in the September quarter with a 12.5% decrease. These approvals fell from a historically high level during mid-2013.

TAS

In the September 2014 quarter Tasmania had an annual increase of 15.5%.

While the size of the Tasmanian market is not large enough to be a major driver of the total situation, annual growth for detached housing was still very strong during the quarter, up by 19.4%.