Capital city dwelling values drop 7.2% in 1 year: Cameron Kusher

EXPERT OBSERVER

Dwelling value drops of -7.2% over the year to April 2019 highlights just how easy it can be to forget the diversity across property market performance as some regions continue to deliver solid growth conditions while others drag averages lower.

Over the 12 months to April 2019, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra were the only capital cities in which dwelling values haven’t fallen. Although value declines have been prevalent, there are certain SA2 regions which have significantly outperformed the broad capital city and equally many regions have significantly underperformed.

Sydney: With dwelling values having fallen by -10.9% over the year to April 2019, only two SA2 regions, both of which are located in the Blue Mountains, have recorded annual growth. A further region of the Blue Mountains has recorded one of the most moderate declines along with two regions on the Northern Beaches. In terms of the Sydney regions with the greatest value declines, SA2 regions in the Inner South West are prevalent on the list.

Melbourne: Over the 12 months to April 2019, dwelling values have reduced by 10.0%. Only two SA2 regions have recorded a rise in values and the five regions with the strongest annual change were located close to the city centre, demonstrating some strength in the established unit market. On the other hand, the five regions that have recorded the greatest annual fall were all located in Melbourne’s Inner East.

Brisbane: Dwelling values are down marginally over the past year, having fallen by -1.9%. The top five SA2 regions with the strongest value growth over the past year are all located in the west of the city and are either within or towards Ipswich. The regions with the largest value falls are much more varied with some emphasis around areas with a mix of residential and industrial land uses featuring on the list.

Adelaide: Over the past year, dwelling values have continued to rise (marginally) up 0.3% over the year. The strongest performing regions are all located either within the Central and Hills region or the North region of the city. The regions with the largest annual value falls are more mixed, with two situated in the Central and Hills region, two in the North and one in the South.

Click to enlarge.

Perth: Dwelling values have been falling since mid 2014 and have declined by a further -8.3% over the 12 months to April 2019. Given this it is no surprise only one SA2 region of the city has recorded an increase in values over the year. The regions with the most moderate declines were all located in either the North West or North East of the city. Conversely, the 5 regions with the largest value falls over the past year were all in either Perth’s South West or Mandurah highlighting a fairly distinct area in which the largest falls are occurring.

Hobart: Values have increased by 3.8% over the past year which is the largest annual increase of all capital cities. The areas with the strongest value growth over the year are quite diverse both geographically and based on the value of dwellings however, 3 are situated in the North East. The list includes some of the most affordable and most expensive regions of the city. Four of the five regions with the most moderate value change over the year are located in the city centre and are some of the most expensive regions of the city.

Darwin: Dwelling values have been falling since mid2015 and have declined by a further -7.1% over the past year. With such weak conditions only one region of the city (Wagaman) recorded an increase in values. The regions with the most moderate value declines were typically amongst the more expensive areas of the city. Conversely, the areas in which value falls were greatest were generally located close to the city centre however, highlighting the ongoing weakness across the inner city apartment sector.

Canberra: Over the 12 months to April 2019, dwelling values in Canberra have risen by 2.5%. Four of the five regions with the greatest value increase over the past year were located in the northern area of the city around Belconnen and Gungahlin. Meanwhile three of the five weakest markets over the year were also in the north of the city while some of the weakest performers were amongst the most affordable regions of the city. With dwelling values falling broadly across the capital cities, there are still some precincts where values are continuing to trend higher, although the list of positive growth areas has shrunk over the past year.

Click to enlarge.

Looking to the data there is some suggestion that in individual cities certain geographic areas and value points are more likely to still be seeing values increase than others.

CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic

Kusher regularly posts on the CoreLogic website.