Prices likely to remain subdued into 2020: ANZ Research

EXPERT OBSERVERS

The housing market remains weak, and many key indicators are around the worst levels in a number of years. However, the downturn is still tracking in line with our previous forecasts, and our outlook is relatively unchanged. 

We still anticipate prices will keep falling through 2018 and 2019, and we have extended our forecast into 2020, where prices are likely to remain subdued.

Nationwide, we continue to expect prices to fall around 4% in 2018 and 2% in 2019.

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We have extended our forecast to 2020, and we think prices will end that year flat from a year ago. We still expect Sydney and Melbourne prices to fall around 10% peak to trough, while other markets will perform better.

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A number of headwinds will continue to weigh on the market, including further credit tightening, out of cycle rate increases, and eventual RBA rate hikes. But despite these challenges, the risks around financial stability have not worsened to date.

Credit availability, or the lack thereof, is also an issue for housing construction.

The current round of projects is already locked in, with a record level of investment in progress. But we have concerns over the next round of projects, and expect to see construction fall steadily through 2019 and 2020.

Daniel Gradwell and Joanne Masters are economists at ANZ.