Proportion of homes sold under $400,000 at historic low: Cameron Kusher

EXPERT OBSERVER

CoreLogic reported that although national dwelling values are falling, the impact is not having much of an affect at the lower end of the housing market with volume of sales under $400,000 continuing to trend lower.

With dwelling value growth having slowed over the 2017- 18 financial year to a decline of -0.8% from an increase of 10.2% over the previous year, it has done little to add to sales of the most affordable properties.

Last week, we noted how there was starting to be fewer seven-figure sales as values decline, this week our analysis shows that the share of sales under $400,000 has continued to decline over the past year.

Nationally, 29.2% of all houses and 34.6% of all units sold over the 2017-18 financial year transacted for less than $400,000.

The share of sales below this price point has fallen from 30.7% for houses and 35.4% for units a year earlier.

The share of sales below $400,000 has increased slightly over the past few months for both houses and units. An historic low 13.9% of combined capital city house sales and 25.8% of capital city unit sales were under $400,000 over the 2017-18 financial year.

The share of sales below $400,000 has fallen over the year from 16.2% of houses and 27.1% of units. Although capital city dwelling values are falling, there continues to be fewer sales occurring below the $400,000 threshold.

The share of sales below $400,000 is predictably much larger across regional areas of the country than within the capital cities.

Over the latest financial year, 49.6% of all regional house sales and 57.3% of all unit sales were for less than $400,000.

House sales under $400,000 were at a record low and down from 51.6% the previous year while unit sales under $400,000 have increased over recent months but are lower than the 58.0% a year earlier.

Very few houses or units have transacted for less than $400,000 in Sydney over the 2017-18 financial year. Over the 12 months to June 2018, 2.5% of houses and 5.8% of units sold for less than $400,000.

The share of house sales under $400,000 was an historic low and has fallen from 3.1% over the previous financial year.

The 5.8% of units sold for less than $400,000 over the year was up marginally from 5.7% over the year to March 2018 but was well down on the 6.7% a year earlier.

As Melbourne dwelling values have climbed over recent years there has been a significant decline in sales under $400,000 to the point where almost no houses sell for less than $400,000.

Over the 2017-18 financial year, an historic low 2.7% of Melbourne houses sold for less than $400,000 which was down from 9.5% over the previous year.

The share of unit sales under $400,000 continues to fall and sits at just 21.5% of all sales over the past year, down from 28.0% the previous year.

While dwelling value growth has been quite weak in Brisbane over recent years, the share of sales occurring for less than $400,000 has generally trended lower.

Over the past 12 months, an historic low 22.8% of all house sales were under $400,000 which was down from 26.1% over the previous year.

The ongoing weakness in the unit market has seen the share of sales under $400,000 increase from 45.3% a year ago to 46.8% in 2017-18.

Adelaide dwelling values have been increasing at a slow pace over recent years and despite the slow growth, the share of sales under $400,000 has continued to fall.

Over the 2017-18 financial year, 36.6% of all house sales and 55.4% of all unit sales were under $400,000.

The 36.6% of house sales under $400,000 was a record low and down from 39.8% of sales a year earlier.

The 55.4% of unit sales under $400,000 was down from 59.1% over the previous year but slightly higher than the 55.2% over the 12 months to April 2018.

Following a number of years of falling dwelling values across Perth, the share of house and unit sales under $400,000 is now beginning to trend higher.

Over the 2017-18 financial year, 26.7% of all house sales were under $400,000 which was the greatest share under this price point since June 2013 and up from 23.8% a year earlier.

51.3% of all unit sales were under $400,000 over the year which was up from 45.6% a year earlier and the highest share since January 2010.

While Hobart still has a large share of properties selling for less than $400,000, the strong growth in dwelling values is resulting in a declining share, which is currently at a record low for houses and units.

Over the 2017-18 financial year, 43.0% of all houses and 69.5% of all units sold were under $400,000.

By comparison, a year earlier, 52.7% of all house sales and 78.0% of all unit sales were less than $400,000.

Although the Darwin housing market has seen falling values for a number of years, there hasn’t been a significant increase in sales of houses for less than $400,000 but there has been for units.

Over the 12 months to June 2018, 25.4% of all house sales were less than $400,000 which was down from 29.6% over the previous 12 months.

For units, 64.3% of all sales were under $400,000 which was up from 40.9% a year earlier and the greatest share since the 12 months to December 2009.

The share of houses and units sold for less than $400,000 in Canberra has fallen over the past year as values have continued to rise.

An historic low 2.4% of house sales were under $400,000 over the year down from 4.4% the previous year. 33.9% of all unit sales were under $400,000 down from 36.3% a year ago.

Perth and Darwin have seen the share of sales under $400,000 increase after a number of years of value declines.

In closing, with values now falling in Sydney and Melbourne it is unlikely to initially result in an increase in sales under $400,000 however, should it continue for a number of years we may finally see a reversal of the declining trend in sales under $400,000.

Cameron Kusher is senior research analyst at CoreLogic RP Data