Perth downturn still has more to come: CLSA's Michael Vincent

Perth downturn still has more to come: CLSA's Michael Vincent
Perth downturn still has more to come: CLSA's Michael Vincent

WA's housing market may not have turned the corner yet, CLSA analyst Michael Vincent has told Fairfax Media. 

He noted ANZ home loan figures showing WA accounted for just 14% of its lending portfolio, but half of the bank's home loan losses.

Delinquent loans that were more than 90 days overdue accounted for 30% of its total.  

This time last year Westpac's financial results show that the bank had experienced a sharp rise in mortgage arrears in Western Australia.

The state accounted for 10% of Westpac's mortgage book, and it contributed to a 21 basis point rise in the proportion of borrowers overall who are 90 days behind in their mortgage repayments.

CEO Brian Hartzer noted in late 2016 that the downturn in the mining boom had prompted Westpac to scale back its mortgage lending in WA.

Hartzer this week suggested the Perth situation was now turning for the better.

Despite the more positive/neutral commentary recently on WA, Vincent wrote this month that he "couldn't help but notice how bad the 90+ day past due chart in ANZ's pack looks for the state".

"I still believe WA is going to deteriorate," Vincent wrote in a market note this week.

In August, CBA noted Western Australia led its portfolio of home-loan arrears, at a rate that was twice the national average. 

CoreLogic this week reported some signs of a pickup in sentiment in the Perth market. 

Perth unit values fell 2.7% in the year to September and house values shed 2.9%, CoreLogic figures last month showed. 

Tags: 
Perth Downturn

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