Melbourne market hangs on economy, oversupply: BIS Shrapnel
Melbourne property increased an average of 9% per annum between 2013/14 and 2014/15, driven by overseas migration and especially strong interstate migration that has met the supply of property that has come on the market over the last few years.
The BIS Shrapnel Residential Property Prospects 2015 to 2018 report found that the potential for continued growth in Melbourne's median house prices is limited to both oversupply and weakness in the state economy.
BIS Shrapnel senior manager and study author, Angie Zigomanis, said as a result the rate of price growth is forecast to progressively slow over the next three years, particularly as interest rate policy begins to be tightened.
“Median house price growth in Melbourne is forecast to total only 4% over the 2015 to 2018 forecast period, with a 5% rise in 2015/16 offset by a small fall in the following two years," Mr Zigomanis said.
"After accounting for inflation, prices are forecast to fall by 4% in real terms. Given the level of apartment supply due to come through, there is greater downside in the apartment sector, where the median unit price is forecast to fall by a total of4% in the three years, or 12% in real terms.”
