How much will prices grow in 2015? SQM Research’s national predictions
SQM Research’s latest Housing Boom and Bust Report forecasts growth to continue across the housing markets for the rest of this year, and far into 2015, with interest rates the key factor to watch.
Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research, said that the housing boom is not yet over and has provided strong forecasts for most of the capitals.
It seems that rates are one of the major factors to watch, substantially altering the forecasts should rates remain unchanged when compared to potential increases.
“The market is somewhat overvalued but not by as much as what some have very publicly stated. I don’t believe at this stage the market is in a bubble. Some cities are heading into overvalued territory, but the point overall is the market is far from a bubble situation when taking into account historical valuations over the past 30 years,” said Christopher.
There are certain scenarios he took into account for each forecast for 2015.
- Scenario 1: Base case. Rates remain unchanged. Economy steady, AUD above 85 cents.
- Scenario 2: A 0.25 cut in rates in first quarter of 2015.
- Scenario 3: A 0.25 rise in mid- to late-2015.
- Scenario 4: Macro prudential tools employed at the beginning of the year. Rates cut towards end of 2015.
Note that the 12 months to June 2014 results are from the ABS Cat 6416. The 2014 forecast figures were from the SQM Research September 2013 Housing Boom and Bust report.
The entire report is available for purchase via SQM Research.
For the forecasts for each capital city based on the different scenarios, see over page.
For Scenario 2 see over page
For scenario 3 see over page
For scenario 4 see over page
