Median values fall for the first time in a year! Let's get some perspective
GUEST OBSERVATION
Have we all recovered from this week's news that our homes fell in value by $10,355 last month?
According to RP Data, the typical $545,000 Australian property declined by 1.9% last month. And, it gets worse if you live in Melbourne where homes fell $19,980 (3.6%) during May. In just one month!
But, don't worry; anyone who is keen to make up for their loss in a hurry might buy in Darwin where a typical property grew in value by a whopping $30,800 (5.5%) over the last three months.
It’s nice to know that yesterday’s RP Data statistics confirmed for us all that Australia is officially having a property boom. The combined value of properties across all capital cities has climbed by an impressive 10.7% over the last 12 months. With the extra $58,315 added to everyone’s balance sheet over the last year perhaps we can now all afford to cut back to a three day working week.
Confused?
Did we lose $10,355 last month, or did we gain $58,315 over the past year? Answer: none of the above!
As they say in the media though: “If it bleeds, it reads”.
According to Monday's RP Data, the 1.9% fall during May is the first monthly fall in values since May 2013 and the biggest fall since December 2008.
On an annualised basis, the typical Australian home declined by 22.8%. Almost a quarter of the value of Australia's 9.3 million residential properties was wiped off the market last month.
Quick, I better sell that farm!
Changes in median values often don’t provide an accurate reflection of actual changes in property values. It’s not like RP Data sends out an army of property valuers each month to conduct formal values on every property in the country.
Median values are based on those properties which sold during a particular period (that’s a very small sample of data within a community). Given that a typical new property is worth more than a typical established property, it makes sense that, if there were a lot of new properties sold in one market over a reporting period that the median value would be higher.
A lot of new properties sold have sold in places like Sydney and Melbourne recently, especially to investors of Asian origin.
Trends in median property value changes are an unreliable measure of how a market is really performing.
As for what is really happening across the country, Sydney’s market appears to be tapering after a 12 month strong run.
The remaining capital cities, including Melbourne, have experienced price growth of between 0% and 6% over the past year.
Broadly speaking, Australia has finally shaken off the post-GFC gitters and entered in to a new (upswing) cycle.
As for the next year or two, PROPERTYOLOGY believes that most capital cities will perform better than last year.
But don't necessarily rely on reading that through future changes in median values.
Simon Pressley is managing director of Propertyology, a full-time property market analyst, accredited property investment adviser, and REIA / REIQ Buyer’s Agent of the Year (2012, 2013, 2014).