The key market factors for 2014

Peter ChittendenDecember 7, 2020

With Australia Day over the silly season will soon be behind us, although for much of the real estate market the silly season in 2013 arrived late, and for many, may have been short lived.  For the residential property market the second half of 2013 was remarkable and hectic, in particular for Sydney. So now as we move into 2014 it’s a good time to highlight some of the key factors that might influence conditions over the next 12 months, for buyers, developers and marketers alike.

But before we leave the silly season completely behind, I was interested to research where the idea first came from. I found that, according to the Oxford English Dictionary, references date back as far as 1861, so this is by no means a new idea. I also found that there is great deal of information published about how to both best enjoy and also ways to avoid the pitfalls of the season. In some round about way this made me think about all of the advice that is offered to real estate buyers.

When looking at the silly season it’s a mix of suggestions like considering alternatives (to alcohol), never drinking on an empty stomach, quench your thirst thus discouraging you from over doing it with the champers and beer. Then you could take a comprehensive B vitamin and antioxidant formula, drink a glass of water between drinks and before going to bed and aim to be in bed before 12am. Then some final suggestions include the use of gentle exercise each day such as walking that will help boost your mood and burn some of those extra kilojoules. And if the season is really getting the best of you, well you could always seek the aid of a naturopath or other health professional for help to manage the demands of your silly season. All of which are strategies that can help you be at your best.

A good plan to avoid any headaches

What these somewhat colourful and quaint ideas offered me was I felt the ideal preamble to a look at the many influences that will impact the residential market in 2014. For example it will pay to stay alter to the varied alternatives that different markets offer, it will also pay dividends if buyers do their fair share of footwork and planning and for sure it will be very wise to get the best support and market information available.

There can be unforeseen consequence of the silly season for some people. Most are easy to deal with, but as we move on from a very positive year in 2013 the market across 2014 is going to be influenced by a wide range of circumstances, and as we often see some factors, like supply will be localised while others, like taxation and planning policy will be as a result of structural change.

Now and next week I would like to highlight some of the central issues and then also look at some marketing trends. However from the start we need to acknowledge that many of the key points will all be connected to a few central issues. These will include house prices, the fate of the Australian dollar, the continued adjustment away from an economy powered by the mining boom and changes to employment and how this also relates to demographic shifts. While in NSW proposed changes to planning regulations and strata laws are set to deliver localised, and some would argue unwelcome pressures on the local apartment market.

Higher house prices here to stay

House prices have always driven a great deal of news, comment and chatter – this will without any doubt continue and amplify. However the headlines can only reflect the reality that market settings for the next few years, are now more or less predictable and they cannot be easily changed. In 2014 we will continue to work with the fact that the dynamics of the housing market are very complex and in the absence of any sort of big policy shift by government no important or far reaching changes can be anticipated.

Where the housing market is concerned either directly or indirectly, current governments at both state and federal level are not given to bold policy shifts. Policies like the floating of the dollar in 1983 or the introduction of capital gains and the fringe benefits tax in 1985 are possible, but we will have to wait until May this year to see if the current tax review results in any big policy shifts.

Over the last six months, as auction clearance rates broke many previous records, house prices were in many areas only now recovering from the impact of the GFC. But clearly price increases were impressive. Over the previous decade the average house price increased by 2.3% while last year Sydney prices grew by 11.4%, Perth 8.6%, Melbourne 6.8% and Brisbane 4.1%. Key factors driving prices were low interest rates, continued lagging in the supply of new homes, apartments and land and a big increase in demand from off-shore buyers, that in some markets like Sydney and Melbourne was a major factor. Now as we look at 2014 these factors are set to continue, but we need to keep an eye on how related issues like the exchange rate and employment could impact these areas.

We know that most Australians are always happier if the value of their home increases, and this boosts general confidence – which was a factor in 2013, but it is also true that lost jobs do weigh heavily on sentiment.

There is of course the fate of first home buyers to consider when we reflect upon the impact of higher house prices. This is an emotional issue, and may currently be somewhat under the radar of the general market, but with only 12.3% of total home loans going to FHBs in November, an historic low, the fate of the FHB may soon move from an economic to a wider social issue.

A key concern, not really helped by low interest rates, is the ability to save the 10% deposit most people aim for when entering the market, in 2014 we may see more pressure for more FHB assistance. While the deposit gap for some may come via help from Baby Boomer parents, who are themselves trading down, this is only a very limited solution for the lucky few.

Peter Chittenden is managing director for residential of Colliers International.


Peter Chittenden

Peter Chittenden is managing director for residential of Colliers International.

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