The lunatics have taken over the asylum: Attempt to divide Mosman is bureaucracy gone mad
Oh dear – the lunatics are trying to run the asylum! Mosman has always had its individual niche suburbs – Balmoral (not Balmoral Beach), Clifton Gardens, Mosman Bay and Beauty Point. Although at the end of the day it is Mosman 2088 so I see the attempt to subdivide Mosman into five new identities is nothing more than bureaucracy gone mad.
Further confirmation is the media outlets are having a field day at the expense of Mosman – five uneasy pieces as Mosman faces split–up which makes it sound like an ugly divorce. Plan to lock suburb out of its harbour fronts, so on the one hand you have a new suburb Balmoral Beach although your home may front onto Chinamans Beach? Has this actually been thought through?
Source: Mosman Council
When I go to look at the houses listed in Mosman that is exactly where you find every house. As For Balmoral Beach – 0, Clifton Gardens – 0, Beauty Point – 0 and Mosman Bay – 0. So it’s not that hard to see what the consumer thinks and simply shows how confusing and ill-informed such a proposal is. As they say “if it isn’t broken don’t try and fix it” and I believe there are plenty of other issues at which Mosman Council would be better directing its resources instead of again carelessly wasting taxpayer money.
Photo: A suggested name change map for the Mosman Council (digitally altered)
Last week I read with interest an article that appeared in the Australian Financial Review – Why this $80bn fund manager won’t touch Australian banks. I liked this question to First Eagle portfolio manager Matthew McLennan by Christopher Joye. “You are clearly very knowledgeable on the Australian economy – what are your views on the resurgent Aussie housing market? It is interesting to me when you hear a politician saying this is not a housing bubble – that is just a supply – constrained market. At the end of the day, I think the Australian housing market is instinctively on the full side of fair value in a situation where the natural constituency, the marginal buyer, is already quite levered.”I thought interesting analysis; then I thought let’s see what this so called bubble looks like and just exactly what is causing this ‘bubble’. It can be explained quite easily – supply.
The average Mosman agency today has approximately 5% of the properties on their rental lists available. Ten years ago that figure was 10-15% and twenty years ago it was 25%. Very few practicing agents today would ever remember how rental properties were once offered with rent – free inducements to prospective tenants.
There are just 90 houses in Mosman available for purchase today, this time last year 114, and this time two years ago 155. For apartments we have 55, this time last year 92, and this time two years ago 110. So you can see a pattern forming where the last time Mosman reached 100 houses was back on May 23 of this year – and in our peak selling season spring/summer we are struggling to reach triple figures.
So again it is supply that is controlling the market and whilst it remains at record lows it is fair to say that Mosman does not have a bubble or alternatively if it does have a bubble there is next to no air in it. Cremorne houses available are 9, and twelve months ago there were 15 and two years ago 16. Cremorne apartments you have a choice of 15, and twelve months ago 15, and two years ago 36. Neutral Bay houses offer 11, and twelve months ago 20 and two years ago 18. Neutral Bay apartments offer 26, twelve months ago there were 56 available and two years ago you had 98 apartments for sale – so there is a very clear pattern evolving.
I prefer to offer a handkerchief analysis of the market as against media outlets who offer the blanket analysis although it would be correct to suggest that the two bear absolutely no resemblance.
So then you have the constant innuendo that our banks are fast – tracking a sub – prime experience yet the ANZ posted this week a $6.498 billion profit up 11% from the previous year. NAB announced yesterday a profit of $5.940 billion profit up nine per cent on the previous year. I did note immediately following the profit announcements the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) advised Australia’s largest banks to limit their dividend payouts to investors to allow the banks to comply with the new rules requiring them to maintain higher capital thresholds.
Whatever currency takes your fancy or whatever name you want to call it – the Mosman dollar still looks very, very impressive.
Robert Simeon is a director of Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985.
He has also been writing real estate blog Virtual Realty News since 2000.
The RWM real estate model has sold in excess of $1 billion in database sales globally.