Stafford blooms but four out of five Sam Saggers Brisbane hotspots yet to show promise
Of the five Brisbane suburbs identified as ‘top picks’ by property investment adviser Sam Saggers just over a year ago, just one has to date been a solid performer, Property Observer analysis reveals.
Saggers identified South Brisbane, Stafford, Newmarket, Annerley and Clayfield as his 'best buy' suburbs in the March 2012 issue of Smart Property Investment magazine based on annual RP Data figures to December 2011.
Saggers said at the time that from 2013 Brisbane would experience "double digit price growth" with a market high in 2016/2017 and with the five-year forecast “looking good”.
Currently, RP Data has Brisbane property values up 1.2% for the first four months of the year, suggesting double digit annual growth could be some way off.
However, he was not the only one to forecast a turnaround for the Brisbane market.
Researchers BIS Shrapnel anticipating, in late 2011, a moderate improvement in prices from January 2012 as the market entered a “consolidation phase” following a decline exacerbated by the December 2010 floods.
Of Saggers' five suburb picks, Stafford, six kilometres north of the CBD, is showing the best long-term prospects.
Stafford median house prices appear to have bottomed out after a 2% fall over 2012 to be 2% up over the 12 months to March 2013 from 84 sales.
Apartments in Stafford are performing even better with median prices up 7% based on 118 sales over the 12 months to March 2013.
House prices in Newmarket, five kilometres north west of the Brisbane CBD, appear to be close to bottoming out having declined by 6% in 2012 they are now just 1% down over in March based on annualised sales data.
In Annerley, six kilometres south of the CBD, both house and unit median prices have fallen substantially.
House prices are down 5% and unit prices are down 7% based on more than 114 house sales and 130 unit sales.
Clayfield is another poor performer to date with a 9% drop in the median house price from 86 sales and a more modest (but declining) 2% drop in unit prices based on 167 sales.
The South Brisbane unit market has also yet to fire.
HOUSES
| Median house price Dec 2011 | Median house price March 2013 | 12 month change to Dec 2012 | 12 month change to March 2013 |
$552,500 | $525,000 | -3% | -5% | |
$860,000 | $800,500 | -7% | -9% | |
$658,000 | $644,000 | -6% | -1% | |
$452,500 | $447,250 | -2% | +2% | |
$805,000 | N/A | -17.3%* | N/A** |
*From only seven sales
**Just one sale recorded in 2013
Source: RP Data
UNITS
| Median house price Dec 2011 | Median house price March 2013 | 12 month change to Dec 2012 | 12 month change to March 2013 |
$399,000 | $369,000 | -5% | -7% | |
$415,000 | $357,500 | +3% | -2% | |
$370,000 | $380,000 | -1% | -4% | |
$346,000 | $389,080 | +7% | +7% | |
$456,000 | $460,000 | -2% | -3% |
Source: RP Data
Image of jacaranda tree by Richard Fisher, courtesy of Flickr.