Mining towns could be 2012 property hotspots: Terry Ryder

Larry SchlesingerDecember 8, 2020

Regional towns linked to the mining industry are expected to again be among the top-performing property markets in Australia in 2012, according to hotspotting.com.au director Terry Ryder.

Ryder has picked five mining towns (Port Hedland, Newcastle, Bowen, Whyalla and Darwin) among the best prospects for 2012 even though he warned investors to avoid mining towns in general on a list of No-Go Zones he compiled in August last year.

The 2011 no-go list included the mining towns of Kalgoorlie and Mount Isa.

“Mining towns have great allure for property investors because they often provide high rental returns and rapid capital growth,” Ryder said at the time.

“But mining towns are among the most perilous locations for investors. They sit at the extreme far end of the risk spectrum. Mining towns have volatile markets that depend on buoyancy in the resources sector,” he said in August 2011.

“Often the prices and rents in mining towns are sustainable only while a resources boom lasts.”

This time around he again warns that despite the “often spellbinding” appeal of resources boom-related towns for property investors, “there are risks to be heeded – most notably in locations that are dependent solely on the fortunes of a single project”.

In his current list Ryder also warns that the increasing trend of FIFO (fly-in, fly-out) workers poses growing potential risks for those investing in real estate in mining towns.

Despite this, he says the performance and future prospects of property investment in mining towns cannot be ignored.

Ryder has highlighted Newcastle, heart of the NSW coal-mining industry, as Australia’s “most under-rated market” and Port Hedland in the iron-ore rich Pilbara region of northern Western Australia as Australia’s “most remarkable property market” in the January 2012 edition of The Ryder Report.

“While it has a lingering image of smoke stacks and hard times, in reality Newcastle is a prosperous city with a pumping economy and a great lifestyle, which presents as a viable affordable alternative to Sydney. Most Newcastle suburbs recorded price growth in 2011 and some delivered double-digit growth,” Ryder says.

The hotspotting.com.au director describes Port Hedland as having “the most extraordinary property market, with house prices rising an average 22% per year for the past 10 years and the median price now $1.04 million”.

“Just when you think they can’t go any higher, they do. The median price rose 11% in 2011. Despite these ridiculously high prices, you can still get 10% yields because typical rents are above $1,800 per week. There is no other market like this in Australia,” he says.

In Queensland, Ryder names perennial hotspot favourite Gladstone – location of some of Australia’s biggest long-term resource projects, including a $41 billion coal mining project scheduled to run from 2011 to 2020 – as the star performer of 2011 and Bowen, 1,100 kilometres north of Brisbane, as the state’s rising star of 2012 because of its “important role in the Queensland coal industry”.

“[Bowen’s] prospects were enhanced late in 2011 when the state government announced a super-sizing of Abbot Point. With six new coal terminals to be built, it will be one of the biggest export facilities in the world,” Ryder says.

In NSW, the mining-rich Hunter Valley is Ryder’s pick as the state’s top performer of 2011 while he believes Whyalla in South Australia will be the state’s star performer in 2012, labelling it the “Gladstone of South Australia”.

“It’s the largest regional centre in the state, it’s affordable and it will play a key role in the $30 billion expansion of Olympic Dam. A new export port is being planned there, as well as a $1 billion rare earths processing plant,” he says.

Both Ryder’s top picks in the Northern Territory have mining links, with the small regional town of Tennant Creek chosen because of its “cattle properties, tourist attractions and mining sites”. He also nominates the capital Darwin as the best territory prospect for 2012 on the back of the $30 billion Inpex onshore gas project almost certain to proceed after gaining both territory and federal approval. Ryder also says the decision to station 2,500 US military personnel in Darwin will boost market confidence. 

Regional towns not tied to the resources boom and suburban markets also make the January list including the unfashionable outer western Sydney suburb of Blacktown (his top NSW pick for 2012).

“Blacktown will continue its steady emergence as an underrated star of the Sydney market. First-home buyers are starting to return in numbers to the Blacktown LGA, which includes Seven Hills and Quakers Hill. It is also a population growth leader, has good transport links and is close to major jobs nodes,” says Ryder.

He also picks the Melbourne suburb of Melton as the rising star of the Victorian market of 2012, with the regional town of Ballarat the state’s star performer of 2011.

“A strong regional centre within commuting distance of Melbourne, Ballarat had a strong year while much of Melbourne was struggling. A number of Ballarat suburbs recorded double-digit growth in median house prices. The city’s prospects are set to get stronger, with the Regional Rail Link, multiple wind farms and a new cancer centre coming up,” he says.

He describes Melton as the most affordable region of the city housing market with good transport connections to central Melbourne and which will be boosted by urban renewal developments.

The southern Perth region of Murdoch is picked as the star performer of 2012 due to being a “cluster of middle-priced suburbs around a major university-hospital precinct”, site for the $2 billion Fiona Stanley Hospital currently under construction as well as the recently released eight-hectare mixed-use “Murdoch Mix” precinct which will include 220,000 square metres of commercial offices, allied health services, retail, residential and short-stay accommodation planned until 2031.

The full list is:

 

QUEENSLAND:

Star performer of 2011 – Gladstone

Rising star in 2012 – Bowen

 

NEW SOUTH WALES:

Star performer of 2011- The Hunter Valley

Rising star in 2012 – Blacktown

 

VICTORIA:

Star performer of 2011 – Ballarat

Rising star in 2012 – Melton

 

WESTERN AUSTRALIA

Star performer of 2011 – Port Hedland

Rising star in 2012 – Murdoch precinct

 

SOUTH AUSTRALIA:

Star performer of 2011 – Ceduna

Rising star in 2012 – Whyalla

NORTHERN TERRITORY:

Star performer of 2011 – Tennant Creek

Rising star in 2012 – Darwin

 

Larry Schlesinger

Larry Schlesinger was a property writer at Property Observer

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