Sydney house prices could jump 14 per cent in 2020: SQM Research
Sydney house prices could make their way back above their 2017 peak next year, according to a new report by SQM Research.
Christopher's Housing Boom and Bust Report 2020 forecasts Sydney prices to grow between 10 per cent and 14 per cent, if factors in the most likely scenario come to fruition.
Their base scenario forecasts are built on if there are no further rate cuts in 2020, that the economy recovers and there is no APRA intervention until at least late 2020.
Sydney house prices dropped peak to trough around 15 per cent since late 2017, with the slowdown coming to an end in June.
Since then, according to CoreLogic, there have been 5.3 per cent gains over the last four months.
“The Sydney and Melbourne housing markets have recorded a sharp turnaround in the 2nd half of 2019 following on from the surprise result of the Federal Election, interest rate cuts, the loosening of credit restrictions and ongoing strong population growth rates," SQM Research boss Louis Christopher says.
"These factors are expected to drive the national housing market into 2020. In a close call, APRA is expected to not immediately intervene despite the strong price rises."
Christopher suggests however that long term, Sydney and Melbourne markets look vulnerable and forever reliant on cheap credit.
""Sydney and Melbourne are rising from an overvalued point," Christopher says.
"Housing debt, while falling compared to GDP over 2019, is still very high.
"Better value can definitely found elsewhere such as Perth and Brisbane”, Christopher added.
Melbourne house prices are forecast to see up to 15 per cent growth.