Victorian land sales soar as population grows fast: Oliver Hume
Victoria’s land sales boom continues in step with strong migration, with new research by Oliver Hume showing prices rising and new lot sales increasing by 2.1% in the last three months.
Melbourne land continues to be some of the hottest property in the country with new lots being snapped up in just around three weeks on average, down from nearly 200 days five years ago.
Median prices in metropolitan Melbourne’s growth areas rose by around a third, reaching over $292,000 in the September quarter 2017, according to Oliver Hume’s new Quarterly Market Report.
Meanwhile, lot sizes keep shrinking. The median size of a lot declined over the year to 414 sqm in the September quarter 2017 from 420 sqm in the September quarter 2016.
The research, which covers key land, apartment and development site markets in Victoria and South East Queensland, analysed thousands of transactions.
It showed around 6,800 land sales in the three months to the end of September across key markets in Victoria.
The median price of land in metropolitan Melbourne’s growth areas reached $292,650 in the third quarter, up 7.6% (or $20,650 from $272,000 in the June quarter of 2017.)
Melbourne’s west remains the city’s major growth corridor with more than 50 active projects; the northern corridor had 38 active projects, while the south-east corridor had over 31 projects.
Oliver Hume national head of Research George Bougias said Melbourne’s unprecedented population growth was driving the property market.
“The new property market continues to see considerable growth,” he said. “It is being driven by a range of demand and supply factors, especially record population growth and demographic change.
“Population growth via natural increase remains high and Victoria continues to attract an increasing number of overseas and interstate migrants. Importantly, many new migrants are now calling Melbourne’s growth area municipalities home.”
Victoria’s population rose by over 149,000 people in the year ending March 2017 with all components of population growth either at their peak or close to their previous peak.
Oliver Hume director Gerrard Ellis said land was attracting a wide variety of buyers including first home buyers, investors and value hunters from Sydney.
“Over the last couple of years, we have seen an ever-increasing number of people priced out of the Sydney market looking to set up their life in Melbourne,” he said. “If your job and family are transferrable, the decision is pretty simple.
“Melbourne is not just attracting locals either with roughly three out of every four buyers in Melbourne born overseas and one-in-five from India.”
An analysis of buyers in the September quarter showed first home buyers (38%) remain the most active and together with second home buyers account for around 70% of all new land purchases.
Bougias said the medium and long-term outlook for land sale prices and volumes remained positive if population growth continued to remain robust.
“Metropolitan Melbourne could add over a million people in under a decade with the greenfields playing a critical role in accommodating this higher than expected population growth,” he said.
“The Melbourne greenfield market is nationally significant in accommodating Australia’s record growth in population.”
Bougias said the population of Melbourne would continue to grow strongly well into the future, and probably outstrip most official forecasts.
Except for the first quarter of 2015, the average time on market for new land lots has now fallen or remained steady in every quarter since the third quarter of 2013, after peaking in the current cycle at 6.6 months at the end of 2012.
The statistic measures the period from when a piece of land is released for sale by a developer until it is contracted by a purchaser.