Biggest quarterly lift in population in 9 years driving building boost: Craig James

Biggest quarterly lift in population in 9 years driving building boost: Craig James
Biggest quarterly lift in population in 9 years driving building boost: Craig James

GUEST OBSERVER

Population estimates

Population: Australia’s population expanded by 389,072 people over the year to March 2017 to 24,511,773 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.553 per cent to 1.613 per cent – the fastest population growth in three years. 

Big quarterly increase: Australia's population grew by 126,138 people over the March quarter - the biggest quarterly increase in nine years.

Victoria leads: Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.43 per cent, the fastest population growth since 1960), followed by the ACT (1.78 per cent), NSW (1.60 per cent), Queensland (1.56 per cent), Western Australia (0.72 per cent), South Australia (0.599 per cent), Tasmania (0.598 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.14 per cent).

The population figures are especially important for companies exposed to home building and consumer spending.

What does it all mean?

In Victoria, population growth is the fastest in 57 years. In NSW, population growth is the fastest in eight years. And In Tasmania you have to go back six years to find a faster rate of population growth. In fact in all states and territories other than South Australia and Northern Territory, population growth is lifting.

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Biggest quarterly lift in population in 9 years driving building boost: Craig James

In some regions, it is natural increase – more babies being born (less the number of deaths) – that is driving population growth. In other regions it is immigration. But overall the stronger rate of population growth is boosting spending, demand for infrastructure, demand for homes, and overall economic growth.

Businesses need to dissect the figures and drill down further to find out which regions are growing the faster, Because those regions present some of the best opportunities

What do the figures show?

Population Statistics:

Australia’s population expanded by 389,072 people over the year to March 2017 to 24,511,773 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate rose from 1.553 per cent to 1.613 per cent – the fastest population growth in three years

Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (2.43 per cent, the fastest population growth since 1960), followed by the ACT (1.78 per cent), NSW (1.60 per cent), Queensland (1.56 per cent), Western Australia (0.72 per cent), South Australia (0.599 per cent), Tasmania (0.598 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.14 per cent).

Australia’s population grew by 126,138 people over the March quarter – the biggest quarterly increase in nine years. 

A total of 231,900 people migrated to Australia over year to March, up from 209,000 in the year to December and the biggest annual gain in four years. Still, growth is still down the peak of 315,700 migrants in the year to December 2008.

There were 302,500 babies born in the past year – just shy of the record growth of 312,200 babies born in the year to December 2012.

Population growth in Victoria is 19.7 per cent above the decade average and population growth in NSW is 14.3 per cent above the decade average. In Tasmania population growth is 8.1 per cent higher than the decade average.

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Biggest quarterly lift in population in 9 years driving building boost: Craig James

Why is the data important?

Demographic Statistics are issued by the Bureau of Statistics each quarter. The figures include estimates of births, deaths, in-bound and out-bound migration movements and estimates of population change by State.

What are the implications?

There are more people coming to Australia and more babies being born. Overall, population is rising, adding to demand for a raft of businesses across a range of industry sectors. 

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Biggest quarterly lift in population in 9 years driving building boost: Craig James

The lift in the growth of the population and the physical population numbers, lifts demand for infrastructure, thus boosting the outlook for builders, building material companies and construction companies. 

While economic growth is poised to lift over the coming year, CommSec believes that cash rates will remain unchanged until late in 2018. 

Craig James is the chief economist at CommSec.

Craig James

Craig James

Craig James is the Chief Economist at CommSec, interpreting ‘big picture’ economic and financial trends.

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Population Population Growth

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