Reserve Bank Board remains cautiously optimistic: Savanth Sebastian
New vehicle sales: The Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reported that new vehicle sales rose by 1.2 per cent in June – the fourth consecutive gain. Annual sales of SUVs and “other vehicles”, like utes, are at record highs.
The Reserve Bank Board minutes provides guidance on interest rate settings. Consumer confidence data is important for retailers. The residential property price data is important for housing-dependent businesses. The car sales data provide perspectives on consumer spending as well as the auto sector of the sharemarket.
What does it all mean?
The Reserve Bank Board remains cautiously optimistic. In fact it could be argued that the latest minutes were certainly more optimistic than in prior months. Although it is unlikely to result in any change to interest rate setting any time soon. Board members considered all manner of factors at the July meeting with particular focus on the housing and job markets.
The Reserve Bank has provided a bit more colour on the neutral cash rate for the economy – estimating it to be around 3.5 per cent. And if this is the case clearly monetary policy remains very expansionary.
What do the figures show?
Reserve Bank Board minutes:
Last paragraph: “Members regarded the improvement in the world economy over the preceding months as a welcome development. Nevertheless, they assessed that current economic conditions in Australia, and the outlook for growth and inflation, meant that developments in the labour and housing markets continued to warrant careful monitoring. Taking into account all the available information, the Board judged that holding the accommodative stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.”
“Members discussed the Bank’s work estimating the neutral real interest rate for Australia. The various estimates suggested that the rate had been broadly stable until around 2007, but had since fallen by around 150 basis points to around 1 per cent. This equated to a neutral nominal cash rate of around 31⁄2 per cent, given that medium-term inflation expectations were well anchored around 21⁄2 per cent, although there is significant uncertainty around this estimate.”
“The recent improvement in labour market data had been a positive development. Members noted that the strength of recent labour market data had removed some of the downside risk in the Bank’s forecast of wage growth.”
“Members recognised that it was too early for the prudential supervision measures announced by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, which were designed to help address the risks associated with high and rising levels of indebtedness, to have had their full effect.”
“Members noted that the recent pick-up in growth in employment should also support a pick-up in household income growth, and therefore consumption growth, in the period ahead.”
Consumer sentiment
The weekly ANZ/Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating eased from 113 to 112.5 in the week to July 16.
Confidence is down 2.1 per cent over the year and below the average of 113.2 since 2014.
Three of the five components of the index fell in the latest week:
- The estimate of family finances compared with a year ago was down from +5 to +3; The estimate of family finances over the next year was up from +21 to +26;
- Economic conditions over the next 12 months was unchanged at -6;
- Economic conditions over the next 5 years was down from +4 to +2;
- The measure of whether it was a good time to buy a major household item was down from +41 to +38.
New vehicle sales
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), new vehicle sales rose by 1.2 per cent in June – the fourth consecutive gain. Passenger car sales fell by 1.4 per cent but sales of sports utility vehicles rose by 4.4 per cent. And sales of “other” vehicles (includes utilities, panel vans, cab chassis, goods carrying vans, rigid trucks, prime movers, non-freight carrying trucks, and buses) rose by 0.3 per cent.New vehicle sales are up by 3.6 per cent over the year. Passenger car sales are down by 7.4 per cent, while SUVs sales are up 12.3 per cent and “other vehicles” are up by 10.7 per cent.
Across states and territories in June: NSW (down 0.1 per cent); Victoria (up 2.6 per cent); Queensland (up 3.1 per cent); South Australia (down 1 per cent); Western Australia (down 0.4 per cent); Tasmania (down 0.4 per cent); Northern Territory (up 7 per cent); ACT (up 6 per cent).
What is the importance of the economic data?
The Reserve Bank releases minutes of its monthly Board meeting a fortnight after the event. The minutes give a guide to Reserve Bank thinking on interest rate settings.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides quarterly data on residential prices. The figures provide further perspectives on the state of the housing purchase sector.The ANZ/Roy Morgan weekly survey of consumer confidence closely tracks the monthly Westpac/Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index but the former measure is a timelier assessment of consumer attitudes and is now closely tracked by the Reserve Bank.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
CommSec expects the Reserve Bank to remain on the interest rate sidelines for an extended period.Savanth Sebastian is an economist for CommSec