Inflation declines month on month: Justin Smirk
Jonathan ChancellorFebruary 6, 2021
GUEST OBSERVER
The February Gauge printed a decline of 0.3 percent/mth taking the annual rate down slightly from 2.0 percent/yr to 1.9 percent/yr.
The three month change dipped to 0.8 percent from 1.2 percent in January.
As February is the mid-month of Q1 it provides the Gauge's first estimate of the Q1 CPI.
More recently, the end quarter reading has provided a better guide to the CPI than the mid-month.
As such, we will wait for the March reading to get a more comprehensive update.
However, since March 2016 neither measure has provided us with a reliable guide to the CPI.
As such we recommend the cautious application of the Gauge as a leading indicator of the CPI.
Justin Smirk is senior economist, Westpac Group and can be contacted here.
Jonathan Chancellor
Jonathan Chancellor is one of Australia's most respected property journalists, having been at the top of the game since the early 1980s. Jonathan co-founded the property industry website Property Observer and has written for national and international publications.