Property 101: Victorian residential property valuations issued

Property 101: Victorian residential property valuations issued
Property 101: Victorian residential property valuations issued

GUEST OBSERVER

The median price of houses in Victoria increased by 4 percent from $500,000 in the September 2015 quarter to $520,000 in the December 2015 quarter, having increased by 2.9 percent in the previous quarter (September 2015).

For the 12 months from December 2014 to December 2015, the median house price in Victoria increased 5.5 percent, from $493,000.

The median price of units in Victoria increased by 1.1 percent from $460,000 in the September 2015 quarter to $465,000 at the end of the December 2015 quarter, having recorded no change in the previous quarter.

The median price of units in Victoria for the December 2015 was lower than the median price of houses. For the 12 months from December 2014 to December 2015, median unit prices increased 2 percent from $456,000.

The median price of vacant land across Victoria remained at $185,000 from the September 2015 quarter to the end of the December 2015 quarter, having decreased in the previous quarter by 5.6 percent.

For the 12 months from December 2014 to December 2015, vacant land prices decreased by 2.6 percent, from $190,000 to $185,000.

metropolitan Melbourne sales statistics for the December 2015 quarter show an increase of 3.3 percent to $630,000 for median house prices, a decrease of 0.4 percent to $490,000 for median unit prices and an increase of 7.7 percent to $237,000 for vacant land.

For the 12 months to December 2015, median sales prices in metropolitan Melbourne showed increases of 7.5 percent for houses, 2.1 percent for units and 12.9 percent for vacant land.  

In the December 2015 quarter the median house price in country Victoria increased by 3.6 percent to $316,000. Units decreased by 0.3 percent to $254,300 and vacant land increased by 1.8 percent to $140,000.

Over the 12 months to December 2015, median sale prices in country Victoria showed a 2.8 percent increase for houses, a 1.7 percent increase for units and a 1.8 percent decrease for vacant land.

Of the 739 listed Victorian locations, 289 had median house price increases for the December 2015 quarter compared to 330 in the September 2015 quarter.

Seven localities recorded no change, 209 showed a decrease and 234 had insufficient sales.  

The maximum number of house sales for the quarter was 247 in Pakenham. There were 32 locations with 100 or more sales in the December 2015 quarter. 

House sales data for the whole of Victoria for the quarter ending December 2015 indicates that the median house sale price increased by 4 percent to $520,000. Metropolitan house prices increased by 3.3 percent to $630,000 and country Victoria house prices increased by 3.6 percent to $316,000.

Quoting the highest and lowest increases and decreases for the quarter does not necessarily provide a definitive indication of the property market. However, the examples of sub-market groupings provided – defined by regional suburb location and township size – may be useful for analysis and comparison.

The use of simple comparisons – increases and decreases in median prices between similar suburbs or towns – disregards the number of sales comprising the median and can be misleading in some instances. It should be remembered that suburbs and towns with higher numbers of sales provide the best guide to trends.

Property analysts will be able to define and explain various locations’ trends using their knowledge of individual locations and their associated sub-market anomalies. This is the purpose of publishing a comprehensive set of data for the whole of Victoria, as reported to Land Victoria over the 15 months to December 2015. A sub-market group is a set of properties grouped by land values and other market characteristics or attributes common to the group, such as land use or building construction.

It is estimated that almost 93 percent of sales for the December quarter of 2015 and 98 per cent for the September quarter of 2015 are included in the data, making it the most comprehensive and authoritative property information available. By allowing extra time for data collection, the Victorian Property Sales Report provides an accurate picture of the property market, which offers certainty to government, the property industry, purchasers and sellers.

The number of Victorian house sales so far recorded for the December 2015 quarter is 21,379. Using the above percentage, it is anticipated that the number of sales for the December 2015 quarter will be approximately 22,988. This is a 2.1 per cent increase from the number of sales in the September 2015 quarter and a 1.2 per cent decrease on the same quarter the previous year (December 2014).

metropolitan Melbourne

House prices in metropolitan Melbourne increased by 3.3 percent in the December 2015 quarter, from $610,000 to $630,000. This follows a 3.4 percent increase in the previous quarter. The number of metropolitan sales for the quarter is expected to culminate at 16,578, which is 1.6 percent higher than the September 2015 quarter and 3.9 percent lower than the December 2014 quarter.

The data indicates that the driving factor in the 3.3 percent increase in metropolitan Melbourne housing values were localities within 20 km of Melbourne, predominately the inner Eastern suburbs. The following table demonstrates the volatility in median house price changes and indicates the need for data analysts to undertake their own detailed research. It has generally been observed that there are fewer suburbs showing an increase in median house price in the December 2015 quarter compared to the September 2015 quarter (187 metropolitan suburbs with 10 or more sales show an increase in median house price for this quarter, compared to 234 suburbs in the September 2015 quarter). 

One hundred and fifteen metropolitan suburbs with 10 or more sales in both of the last two quarters shifted from showing a median price increase for the September 2015 quarter to a median price decrease for the December 2015 quarter. For example, Heidelberg increased by 16.1 percent in the September 2015 quarter, while it showed a 9.4 percent decrease in the December 2015 quarter. This compares to 94 metropolitan suburbs shifting from an increase in the June 2015 quarter to a decrease in the September 2015 quarter.

Conversely, 68 metropolitan suburbs with 10 or more sales shifted from showing a median price decrease for the September 2015 quarter to a median price increase for the December 2015 quarter. This compares to 69 metropolitan suburbs shifting from a decrease in the June 2015 quarter to an increase in the September 2015 quarter.

Thirty-three metropolitan suburbs with 10 or more sales showed decreases for both the September 2015 and December 2015 quarters. Significant examples include Malvern and Canterbury. This is compared to eight metropolitan suburbs in the previous quarter.

The biggest median price increase in a suburb with 10 or more sales occurred in South Melbourne, which had 24 sales and rose by 34.9 percent ($1,017,500 to $1,372,500). The next biggest increase in the Melbourne metropolitan area occurred in Yarra Junction, which had 14 sales and rose by 20 percent to $435,000.

For the quarter, Fitzroy North had the largest median house price decrease in a metropolitan suburb with 10 or more sales. It had 29 house sales and its median house price decreased by 23.4 percent, from $1,370,000 to $1,050,000. Black Rock experienced the second highest median price decrease in metropolitan Melbourne. It had 22 sales and its median price decreased by 23 percent from $1,842,500 to $1,418,000. 

Melton’s median price of $261,500 was the lowest for metropolitan suburbs in the December 2015 quarter. The median house price increased by 5 per cent from the September 2015 quarter.

Toorak continued to have the highest median price at $3,057,500, decreases of 18.5 per cent from the previous quarter and 0.9 per cent for the 12 months from December 2014.

Inner suburbs (within 10 km of Melbourne CBD) 

Suburb

December quarter 2014 $

September

quarter

2015 $

December

quarter 2015 $

% change

December 2014–2015

% change

September 2015–December 2015

Ascot Vale

875000

872500

900000

2.9

3.2

Brunswick

800000

890000

898000

12.3

0.9

Caulfield South

1260000

1400000

1325000

5.2

-5.4

Fitzroy North

965000

1370000

1050000

8.8

-23.4

Flemington

760000

823000

811800

6.8

-1.4

Footscray

650000

675000

729000

12.2

8.0

Hawthorn

1641000

1857500

2001300

22

7.7

Malvern

1950000

2140000

1970000

1.0

-7.9

Preston

708000

815000

810000

14.4

-0.6

Richmond

1030000

1065000

1204000

16.9

13.1

South Melbourne

1042000

1017500

1372500

31.7

34.9

South Yarra

1402500

1850000

1700000

21.2

-8.1

St Kilda

1105000

1152500

1001000

-9.4

-13.1

Toorak

3085000

3752500

3057500

-0.9

-18.5

Williamstown

980000

1117500

1120000

14.3

0.2

  

Eastern suburbs (10–20 km from Melbourne CBD)

Suburb

December quarter 2014 $

September

quarter

2015 $

December

quarter 2015 $

% change

December 2014–2015

% change

September 2015–December 2015

Balwyn

1800000

2225000

2060000

14.4

-7.4

Blackburn

967500

1200000

1233000

27.4

2.8

Box Hill North

945000

1150000

1012500

7.1

-12.0

BOX HILL SOUTH

1002500

1201800

1160000

15.7

-3.5

Burwood

925000

1247500

1125000

21.6

-9.8

Camberwell

1742500

2005000

1805000

3.6

-10.0

Glen Iris

1615000

1760000

1868500

15.7

6.2

Oakleigh South

712500

840000

861000

20.8

2.5

Surrey Hills

1520000

1875000

1721000

13.2

-8.2

 

Western suburbs (10–20 km from Melbourne CBD)

Suburb

December quarter 2014 $

September

quarter

2015 $

December

quarter 2015 $

% change

December 2014–2015

% change

September 2015–December 2015

Altona

612000

715000

749000

22.4

4.8

Cairnlea

582500

550000

597800

2.6

8.7

Deer Park

370000

400000

395000

6.8

-1.3

Derrimut

420000

490000

508500

21.1

3.8

Keilor East

610000

705000

695300

14.0

-1.4

St Albans

387000

435500

451000

16.5

3.6

Sunshine

491000

567500

623000

26.9

9.8

Sunshine West

415000

485000

490000

18.1

1.0

 

Outer-western suburbs (20+ km from Melbourne CBD)

Suburb

December quarter 2014 $

September

quarter

2015 $

December

quarter 2015 $

% change

December 2014–2015

% change

September 2015–December 2015

Burnside Heights

436000

452000

510000

17

12.8

Caroline Springs

475000

492000

503500

6.0

2.3

Hoppers Crossing

342500

374000

375000

9.5

0.3

Point Cook

460000

505000

506500

10.1

0.3

Sydenham

410000

445000

446500

8.9

0.3

Tarneit

400000

405000

410000

2.5

1.2

Taylors Hill

494000

523000

542500

9.8

3.7

Werribee

333800

335500

359300

7.6

7.1

Outer-eastern suburbs (20+ km from Melbourne CBD)

Suburb

December quarter 2014 $

September

quarter

2015 $

December

quarter 2015 $

% change

December 2014–2015

% change

September 2015–December 2015

Bayswater

562000

638900

635000

13.0

-0.6

Bayswater North

500000

592000

580000

16.0

-2.0

Boronia

530400

619000

575600

8.5

-7.0

Ferntree Gully

525200

618500

600000

14.2

-3.0

Heathmont

687000

778000

775000

12.8

-0.4

Knoxfield

593800

745000

705000

18.7

-5.4

Wantirna

700000

820000

831500

18.8

1.4

Country Victoria

Country Victoria’s median house price increased by 3.6 percent to $316,000 in the December 2015 quarter. Over the 12 months to December 2015, the median house price in country Victoria increased by 2.8 percent from $307,500. 

The number of country Victoria house sales for the December 2015 quarter is expected to be 6,410, which is 6.4 percent more than the December 2014 quarter.

A comparison of house prices in regional, seaside and large towns also indicates various trends.

Regional cities

 

Suburbs in regional cities

December quarter 2014 $

September

quarter

2015 $

December

quarter 2015 $

% change

December 2014–2015

% change

September 2015–December 2015

Ballarat Central

350000

325000

345000

-1.4

6.2

Bendigo

338300

312000

385000

13.8

23.4

Geelong

531000

599000

633500

19.3

5.8

Horsham

220000

225000

239500

8.9

6.4

Mildura

248000

250400

260000

4.8

3.9

Shepparton

256500

240000

263300

2.6

9.7

Warrnambool

322500

320000

338300

4.9

5.7

Wodonga

298000

279000

295000

-1.0

5.7

Regional city housing markets showed similar trends for the December 2015 quarter. Bendigo median house prices increased by 23.4 percent, having decreased by 10.9 percent in the previous quarter. Mildura increased by 3.9 percent for the December 2015 quarter, having increased by 6.6 percent in the previous quarter. 

Large towns

Suburbs in large towns

December quarter 2014 $

September

quarter

2015 $

December

quarter 2015 $

% change

December 2014–2015

% change

September 2015–December 2015

Bairnsdale

229800

210000

250000

8.8

19.0

Castlemaine

396300

380000

395000

-0.3

3.9

Colac

242000

237500

244000

0.8

2.7

Echuca

307500

300000

305000

-0.8

1.7

Hamilton

175500

212500

215000

22.5

1.2

Moe

175000

160000

168000

-4.0

5.0

Morwell

138300

168800

165000

19.3

-2.2

Sale

300000

295000

308000

2.7

4.4

Swan Hill

229000

270000

268000

17.0

-0.7

Traralgon

265000

265000

298000

12.5

12.5

Wangaratta

270000

283500

270800

0.3

-4.5

Yarrawonga

285000

301500

340000

19.3

12.8

The sample of large towns is the same used in the previous quarter’s report. It shows that nine of the 12 large towns had increases in median house prices for the December 2015 quarter. The September 2015 quarter showed increases for eight towns and the June 2015 quarter showed increases for nine towns. 

Bairnsdale had an increase of 19 percent for the December 2015 quarter, having decreased by 15.2 percent in the previous quarter. Wangaratta decreased by 4.5 per cent and Traralgon increased by 12.5 percent. Sale increased by 4.4 percent for the December 2015 quarter, having increased in the previous quarter by 3.9 percent. 

Seaside towns

 

Seaside towns

December quarter 2014 $

September

quarter

2015 $

December

quarter 2015 $

% change

December 2014–2015

% change

September 2015–December 2015

Anglesea

610000

635000

700000

14.8

10.2

Barwon Heads

775000

725000

835000

7.7

15.2

Cowes

385000

420000

437200

13.6

4.1

Inverloch

434500

422500

435000

0.1

3.0

Lakes Entrance

264000

290000

255000

-3.4

-12.1

Lorne

815000

770000

997500

22.4

29.5

Portland

197500

223500

224500

13.7

0.4

St Leonards

352800

366000

458500

30.0

25.3

Torquay

585000

660000

658100

12.5

-0.3

Venus Bay

230000

232000

265500

15.4

14.4

The sample of seaside towns shows that eight of the 10 towns selected had increases in their median house prices from the September 2015 to December 2015 quarters. Anglesea increased by 10.2 percent, having increased by 8.1 percent during the previous quarter. Cowes median house price increased by 4.1 percent for the December 2015 quarter, having increased by 1.1 percent in the previous quarter. Venus Bay median house price increased by 14.4 percent for the December 2015 quarter, having increased by 3.1 percent in the previous quarter. 

Robert Marsh is Victorian Valuer-General and can be contacted here.

Tags: 
Victoria Median Price

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