Investment banks get it totally wrong: Bob Guth

Investment banks get it totally wrong: Bob Guth
Investment banks get it totally wrong: Bob Guth


I am sure you have all read this week how the investment bankers and economists are predicting property will fall dramatically early in 2016. 

The Sydney Morning Herald reported Macquarie was looking at a 7.5% reduction from “peak to trough”. The Australian reports, Macquarie said in a note “Credit growth, auction clearance rates, house prices, settlement volumes and the dollar value of settlements are also showing signs of slowing, albeit from lofty levels”.  Credit Suisse goes a step further warning that property investment in Australia is “riskier than the equity market”, particularly in NSW. 

During Spring in times of property upswings we quite often read such predictions as with greater volume of stock (in Spring) buyers have more choice and as a consequence auction clearance rates dip a little. This is happening at the moment and the pundits mistakenly think this is the start of a property price downturn.

We all are aware the market has been in almost boom conditions for a couple of years and the rate of growth we have experienced during that time is not sustainable in the long-term, but I can see nothing to indicate a fall in prices.  A plateau perhaps….which would be a good thing. Maybe even call it a breather!

An example of what I mean was last night’s auction sale of 103 Paddington Street, Paddington which sold for $2,000,000, considerably above reserve and a price which delighted the owners.  During the final week of the campaign three potential buyers who had shown interest in this terrace bought something else…see what I mean…greater choice from more properties on the market. 

Why do I feel this way?

Experience tells me the key drivers of property are interest rates (affordability) and confidence. The ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating indicates confidence is higher in October than it was during Winter...another pointer to a healthy property market. The US Equity Market is on the up and so is Europe.  Building costs in Australia remain high and moving higher…this filters down to replacement cost and the basic value of home improvements.

I am looking forward to the rest of the Spring and with confidence to 2016….so should you!


Bob Guth is director and auctioneer, Bradfield Cleary and can be contacted here.


Property investment Clearance Rates

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