The higher you build, the greater the fall: Edwin Almeida
Many builders and civilizations have had the notion to reach for the skies to build their own versions of the Tower of Babel, be as gods in the developing world at their time.
I believe versions of these towers are about to emerge once again here in Western Sydney – Parramatta.
Two questions come to mind, as I recall previous residential towers that emerged some time ago and also not far from Parramatta. It was an event almost symbolic of the Babylonian culture to reach for the heavens. What we witnessed almost 10 years ago and what is happening now, seems to be a case of “deja vu” as builders, a decade later, are reaching for the skies once more.
The first question: Will these towers topple (not in the literal sense but in an economic one), as they did in the past? And secondly, how many developers, tradespeople and builders will go broke this time around as a result of them being built?
I recall some time ago when I was working with a property group, selling property in Westmead, it was “blue skies” for the developers. A term used for the money being made on the top floor apartments, a term representing the big bonus and very much symbolic of the amount of dollars that were made.
As I sell and assist with the sales of development sites currently, the same language has emerged again of “blue skies” and perhaps now because of the “Asian gravy train” sentiment being felt in Sydney. Whatever the reason, there is still the same ambition shown by developers to break through the clouds but also to break through cultural and economic borders where the financial bonus lie.
No different than what we witnessed about 10 years ago, construction cranes emerged all over Sydney. Robot-like staunches, building their lords' towers on an upward journey to break through the clouds. Distinctly however, the buildings weren’t as high. What is being built now will tower above and overshadow those developers' past exploits. Will this however be representative and signal a greater financial fall? Only time will tell. Looking back however, for many, it never ends well.
Construction cranes that are becoming more and more familiar around Parramatta CBD.
When the economic gods of yesteryears frowned upon the then developers, the excitement and calm before the storm that brewed then, are now emerging once again. The current excitement around property investing has led many to forget simple economics such as return on investment. Not to mention, the calm and tranquil overconfident approach that has made many believe that Western Sydney is sheltered from any property fall out.
Both excitement and placebo, fueled the ridiculous prices that were being paid for new apartments in the past and, once again, ridiculous prices are been paid. However, this time it may well be very different. Well, different from the last time when we saw the overarching towers emerge around Westmead but which had many local investors and developers lose thousands and millions of dollars.
Compared to what was being built in Westmead at the time, these buildings shown above overshadowed any other new building development nearby. Prices dropped from $440,000 to $320,000 overnight. Many of my clients were caught out half way during their construction face.
When the economic gods turned on the property market then and prices topple immensely below what properties were sold for off-the-plan, it hurt many investors along with smaller developers. It’s only recently that what properties were sold for in previous years off the plan that these prices are now being achieved on re-sales.
Put aside for a moment, the notion that there is an under-supply of property, the notion that we have run out of land to build and more-so the talks that our population is growing in uncontrollable numbers, which is foolishly driving prices through the proverbial ceiling. Think about the basic needs and concerns for sustainable development and affordable housing to accommodate the local market.
If the notion of undersupply was remotely true as we are lead to believe, why are rental vacancy rates pushing upward of 2% and climbing steadily? How is it that our property management team are experiencing greater delays in attracting tenants and at lower rental values and not only around Parramatta? Just some of the questions that have a bearing as to where we are headed.
Looking at the outer fringe figures for Sydney, the increase appears significant and growing steadily. Over the next three months I foresee a strong upward trend, due many developments in and around Parramatta coming to completion.
The primary concern I feel however, is the notion of job stability and security. I don’t believe we have one nor the other. With the high levels of unemployment recorded and as well as the need to have two high income earners to afford Sydney’s median entry level, it just doesn’t make any logical sense to buy into this overly heated market. Particularly in and around Parramatta and especially at the entry level prices paid by the passengers that arrive in the ‘gravy trains’ that developers feast on.
Nonetheless, these newly emerging towers are attracting sales figures, in and around $13,000 per square metre or $750,000-$800,000 for a two bedroom unit, in Parramatta and as far as Northmead. Excitement and placebo once more fueling the storm that is about to hit and it will hit hard.
However, more to the point is the nature of speculative buying fever fueled by the international dollar. It won’t take long for these fly-in, fly-out investors to find out that not all that glitters is gold. How they come and why they come will be at the center of the next article, part two of the series “Reaching For The Skies”.
The new towers that are being proposed to be built are taller, costly, bulkier and will overshadow what was ever built in the past. The three that come to mind as I speak to peers that work in the area are; the Northmead developments, Parramatta CBD and West Parramatta.
The old Parramatta Advertiser site alone, now being demolished, flags rumors of three towers being built that may well house up to 1,200 apartments. It is after all, an impressively large parcel of land. Rumors or not, distinctive traits of the last downturn are once more evident and forming the very strong overtones that angered the economic gods before.
Sitting with a local councilor and discussing the emergence of these towers, and the amount of apartment developments being approved, one cannot go past and reminisce how things changed overnight a decade ago and how the aftermath was rampant.
The grief caused didn’t discriminate as it hit many involved in the property market from; local investors to trades people to builders and developers. I am one to believe the devastation this time around just won’t be local to Sydney-siders.
EDWIN ALMEIDA is licensee in charge of Just Think Real Estate.
He is also the creator of Oz Real Estate.TV and a presenter for propertyinvestingvault.com.
Photos courtesy of the author.