Greatest risk hovering above the market isn't a bubble, it's oversupply
A story that caught my eye this week proclaimed a building boom in the City of Blacktown in Sydney’s west.
My first reaction was gratification, because for years I’ve promoted Blacktown as one of Sydney’s underrated growth markets – and in recent times it has delivered on its promise, with state-leading population growth and capital growth right up with the best in Sydney. A lift in development approvals makes sense.
My second reaction was concern, because the level of building approvals in the past two financial years raises the prospect of the greatest risk hovering above property markets around Australia – oversupply.
While building and developer groups continue to peddle their political catchcry of shortage, unsupported by any evidence, the reality is that the opposite problem is the greatest threat to residential markets.
There is no bubble in Australian real estate and the chances of prices collapsing for this reason are zero.
But there is a risk of serious decline in major markets because of oversupply.
We have some stark recent examples of what can happen to markets when developers build too many dwellings.
One is provided by Gladstone, which has the most compelling demand factors ever visited on a regional city in Australia. Sixty billion dollars in major construction projects and tens of thousands of new jobs and yet the market has crashed. Oversupply can override the most powerful of growth drivers.
Another example is the Gold Coast. This wacky theme park for overseas tourists and property speculators has just emerged from five years of declining values for a single reason: oversupply created by developers who let their egos do the decision-making. In most locations values are still below those of five years ago (although that is set to change as the Gold Coast moves into a growth phase).
The next big surplus scenario is now being enacted in downtown Melbourne, with a looming market disaster being facilitated by Australia’s worst ever planning minister, Matthew Guy. I can envisage a time when property owners in inner-city Melbourne mount a class action to sue Guy for destroying their property values by not only approving but encouraging the greatest apartment glut since federation.
But Melbourne is likely to have plenty of company. Every CBD and near-city market in capital city Australia has an existing oversupply or is heading towards one. The Gold Coast has finally absorbed a five-year surplus of highrise units but developers are already working feverishly on the next one, in the apparent belief that the Commonwealth Games and Chinese investors will cover their butts.
This spotlights an issue many investors overlook when considering a location. They’ll examine many factors but fail to check out the vacancy rate. Even those that do are at risk, because few think about future supply.
Investors must check current vacancies but also examine building approval figures. A major uplift in residential approvals in the most recent financial year can provide a clue to future over-supply.
A case in point is Rockhampton in Queensland. I’m a fan of this place because it has economic diversity, less reliance on resources than neighbouring Mackay and Gladstone, lots of affordable dwellings and strong rental yields. There’s plenty of infrastructure and development happening.
Rockhampton has a strong future. But my one nagging concern has been the level of recent building approvals. Recently those high levels of new dwellings have started to push up residential vacancies.
Back to the City of Blacktown, where close to $1 billion in new developments was approved by the council in 2013-14. In each of the 2011 and 2012 financial years, dwelling approvals numbered around 1,400. In both the 2013 and 2104 financial years, approvals have been around 2,100 – with a particularly big increase in approvals for apartments.
In the past couple of years, development approvals for the Blacktown LGA have been the highest in Sydney metropolitan area, except for Sydney City. Blacktown has been well ahead of Parramatta and Penrith.
This reflects Blacktown’s status as the population growth leader in NSW, as well as a centre for good infrastructure, transport links, new development and jobs growth. It will probably attract plenty of benefits from the Badgerys Creek airport development.
But investors would be wise to keep on eye on dwelling supply. Currently the vacancy rate for the Blacktown postcode is just 1.2%, according to SQM Research. But that could change – and quickly.