EXPERT INSIGHT

The national residential vacancy rate fell from 2.1 per cent to 1.9 per cent in April.

But these figures mask some serious variances across the country.

CoreLogic has already reported rents turning vertical in some markets, and now SQM Research is seeing the same.

This will eventually feed into inflation figures (although the ABS uses a measure of all rents, not just newly let properties, which will dampen the inflation impact a little).&nbsp;

Sydney&#39;s vacancy rate fell to 3.1 per cent in April, now well down from 3.9 per cent a year earlier, and gradually tightening. And Melbourne saw its vacancy rate drop from 4.4 per cent to 4 per cent in April as confidence returns in the city economy.&nbsp;

[smartcode_project:default project_id=90550]

There are still relatively high vacancy rates in the CBD markets as offices remain only half full, while tenants have often eschewed density over the past year.

SQM believes that household sizes have declined, as people shun living together in groups through the pandemic, which intuitively makes sense.&nbsp;

Almost everywhere else rental markets have tightened dramatically.&nbsp;

Brisbane&#39;s vacancy rate fell to 1.4 per cent from 2.8 per cent a year earlier, and every other capital city is now very tight at under 1 per cent.&nbsp;

Some of regional markets have reached crisis point.

I&#39;ve seen it first hand in Noosa, while SQM noted that the Gold Coast and north coast of New South Wales have often seen rental price hikes of about 30 per cent for houses.

Some parts of Perth are seeing the same.&nbsp;

This again goes to demonstrate how &#39;macro&#39; figures are only so useful for property market participants.

Immigration is effectively &#39;switched off&#39; at the moment, yet many rental markets are now feeling the pain of the preceding credit squeeze on investors, with rental supply approaching crisis point.

ACT case study

There was a bit of a debate some years back, where I suggested to a few economists that Canberra&#39;s property taxes would lead to spiralling rents, making Canberra the most expensive place in the country to find a rental.

My contention was essentially thus:

<ol>
	<li>Economists say property taxes won&#39;t lead to rent increases</li>
	<li>Property taxes ratcheted up apace</li>
	<li>Rents spiral</li>
	<li>Economists say record high rents are actually because of something else</li>
</ol>

Or something like that anyway.&nbsp;

COVID-19 threw in a major interruption to normal service last year, but now the double digit increases for Canberra&#39;s asking rents are hoving back into view.&nbsp;

In September 2014 the median asking rent for a house in Canberra was $465/week, while today it has increased to $690/week and now looks set to spike much higher on SQM&#39;s data series.&nbsp;

As such Canberra will take out the title as most expensive capital city in which to rent this year, eclipsing Sydney and Melbourne, although the jury is still out on the role of property tax.&nbsp;

Asking rents for units increased more modestly from $370/week for $490/week over the same time period, although one suspects that data series has partly been skewed higher by the relatively high number of new units constructed in the nation&#39;s capital.&nbsp;

The national residential vacancy rate fell from 2.1 per cent to 1.9 per cent in April.

pwargent

Large rental price increases across property markets: Pete Wargent

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<h2>OPINION</h2>

Having failed to call the turning point in the housing market, within a matter of just a few short months the expert commentators are out in force to demand cooling measures.

It's almost as if the commentary is continually running 3-6 months behind the reality, since the peak of the buying frenzy may already have passed.

Once there was a time when you'd let supply and demand determine prices, but now there are endless calls for tinkering to constantly fine-tune housing prices and activity in the country's most expensive city. 

Over the past couple of weeks final auction clearance rates have already moved a notch lower, and housing finance figures were down a bit last month too. 

And this weekend, despite a strong preliminary result in Sydney, drizzly Melbourne's preliminary clearance rate was well under 75 per cent, as more sellers bring stock to the market. 

<img alt="" height="404" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/frezny_1.jpg" width="640">

Source: Domain

Something I've noticed over the years is that you'll often get a much better feel for what's going on from listening to mortgage brokers, buyer's agents, or auctioneers (and selling agents when...at least when they aren't in sales mode!), much more so than from analysts and investment bankers poring over historic data from a few months earlier. 

Straight from the auction coalface...

<img alt="" height="513" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/frezny_2.jpg" width="640">

Detached house building approvals have soared to all-time highs this year, so we can expect to see a corresponding uplift in new dwelling supply in H2 2021.

And with the vaccine rollout floundering, there's almost no immigration to soak it up, so this will act as a natural coolant. 

<img alt="" height="371" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/frezny_3.jpg" width="640">

Therefore it won't be a surprise to see the frenzy pass as more vendors look to cash out later in the year, which will almost certainly calm things down. 

PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers and a best-selling author and blogger 
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Over the past couple of weeks final auction clearance rates have already moved a notch lower, and housing finance figures were down a bit last month too. 

Housing buying frenzy may have passed: Pete Wargent

<html><body>EXPERT INSIGHT

The end of the JobKeeper payment program will not represent a systemic risk for mortgage defaults in the housing market, according to Pete Wargent from BuyersBuyers.com.au.

But Wargent suggests at the individual level there might be the potential for mortgage stress after a modest increase in unemployment.

“However, the risks of widespread mortgage default have thankfully materially subsided for a number of reasons.”
 
"Housing prices are now rising almost across the board, significantly reducing the willingness to default, and lenders have more flexibility to offer interest-only terms or work with borrowers in hardship. 

"Notably, lenders have effectively been the ‘shock absorbers’ of the housing market during the pack of the pandemic, trying to mimimise reputational damage and keep forced sales to a minimum”..
 
“At the individual level there might be the potential for mortgage stress and a modest increase in unemployment resulting from the ending of the JobKeeper program, and as many are switched onto the JobSeeker income support package” Mr Wargent said.
 
Wargent noted that most importantly, the latest update from APRA on loan deferrals showed a huge swing towards the resumption of repayments, to the extent that only $11.7 billion of housing loans remained deferred, or approximately 0.7 per cent of housing loans by value. 

The ABS reported that private sector job vacancies have increased by 29 per cent since February 2020, to comfortably exceed pre-pandemic levels, while public sector vacancies were also up by 13 per cent over the past year.
 
Unit rents have fallen in the inner cities, but so too have mortgage rates. And, as workers return to offices in the most populous cities, vacancies have generally begun to fall as reduced rents are luring tenants back in.”
 
“Property investors are also turning their attention to units, in search of bargains, which is supporting prices. Analysts are always looking for mortgage stress, but at the macro level, it’s not much in evidence” Mr Wargent said.
 
Mr Wargent said “the risks are generally higher in Melbourne’s high-rise unit market, with more loans remaining deferred than elsewhere in Australia after the state’s extended lockdown period, and higher vacancy rates for units in the CBD”.
 
“However, since most of these properties are owned by investors, overall, the risk of widespread forced selling is low. Local buyer’s agents are already reporting that unit prices are rising ex-CBD, so the mortgage default risks are declining all the time” Mr Wargent said.</body></html>

The end of the JobKeeper payment program will not represent a systemic risk for mortgage defaults in the housing market, according to the buyers agent

JobKeeper's end doesn't pose a systemic risk for mortgage defaults: Pete Wargent

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Expert Observer

As we previously projected, the housing market has shifted from a buyer’s market to a seller’s one, where fear of missing out (FOMO) has become a major factor. In addition, it is highly likely that the ultra-low interest rate environment will remain in place for at least for the next 24 months, and possibly longer. 

This, combined with only a low availability of stock of quality assets in popular areas, has been reflected in almost unprecedented auction clearance rates.  

Buyer’s agents have been reporting tight stock levels all over the country. 

It’s not uncommon to see lower stock levels over the summer break, but this year has been something else. Even as new listings have begun to pick up supply is being comfortably outstripped by demand and the market overall is very tight.

Melbourne presents a slightly different dynamic, with various disruptions making the market more disjointed, but in most parts of the country open homes are busy as confidence returns, and strong sales results are being reported in short order.

Market dynamics confirmed earlier forecasts of strong price growth in 2021, with some markets likely to even better than previously forecast. 

It is projected that both Sydney and Melbourne will deliver capital growth in the range of 8-12 per cent in 2021. Many areas are also likely to deliver double digit growth over the calendar year. In particular, houses with a high land value component and scarcity value are likely to enjoy very strong demand and capital growth, both in the short and long term. 

Other markets, particularly south-east Queensland and popular regional areas that offer particularly good lifestyle choices, also enjoy strong demand, and this is likely to result in strong price growth both in the short- and long-term, as the trend of increased popularity of such areas is sustained. 

The medium- and long-term projections for South Australia, Western Australia, and the Northern Territory, are different than those that are projected to the eastern states. While many other areas that experience lower population growth and softer job market (in comparison to Sydney and Melbourne), such as Perth, are also experiencing strong capital growth for houses, this is less sustainable over the long term, due to lower external migration and a relatively smaller number of high paying jobs in the ‘knowledge industry’ (e.g., financial services, IT, etc).  

Obviously, these are under our key underlying assumption is that the COVID-19 vaccinations that have been rolled out will provide a sustainable solution to the virus over time. 

Rental apartments, however, continue to represent a higher risk at the present time, in particular inner-city apartment markets such as Inner-Melbourne.  

Consumer sentiment is very high, as expected. According to Westpac-Melbourne Institute, in February, Westpac’s key measure of house price expectations has risen strongly to 154.7 from 117.3 in October. All states have registered impressive recoveries. 

House price expectations are already being reflected in auction clearance rates figures, especially in Melbourne. Preliminary auction clearance rates in the last week of January showed results of 83 per cent in Melbourne and 83 per cent in Sydney, with noticeably higher auction clearance rates for houses than units. Clearance rates across the country are likely to remain high and similar to pre-pandemic Levels and well above the 70 per cent mark. 

A sustained period of ultra-low interest rates seems almost certain in the foreseeable future. This has led some lenders to offer introductory home loan variable rates of 1.79 per cent, a move which follows the launch of the first fixed rates of 1.75 per cent. Consequently, this has led to an increase in housing finance.  

The latest ABS data on new housing lending showed a record 31.2 per cent year-on-year rise, driven by a surge in owner-occupier lending (which includes a large increase in construction loans) as well as a smaller rise in investment lending. The value of new owner occupier home loan commitments increased by 8.7 per cent to $19.9 billion in December 2020 and the value of investor loan commitments was also up 10.9 per cent to $6.07 billion. 

First home buyer activity is also well above the benchmark, up 56.6 per cent year-on-year. However, the share of owner-occupier activity is likely to reduce with an expected increase in investor activity. 

A further increase in housing finance is highly likely during the first quarter of 2021 with many lenders already experiencing backlogs to address loan pre-approval applications. Ultra-low interest rates are also likely to have a positive impact on the market during 2021 and 2022. 

Lifestyle areas enjoyed strong demand before COVID-19 hit, and the demand trend of sea- and treechange homebuyers is now, with flexible working arrangements, even stronger. Those who work in a stable corporate environment, but do so remotely, are taking advantage of great buying opportunities in NSW, Victoria, and south-east Queensland. 

These include areas of south-east Queensland such as the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast, just over the NSW border in Byron Bay, and further south on the Central Coast, in areas such as North Avoca, Terrigal, and Wamberal. Then, there are also sought-after locations such as the Hunter Valley, Wollongong, and the NSW South Coast, and in Victoria, the Mornington Peninsula, Geelong, and Ballarat. Beachside suburbs especially are outperforming the wider market as they offer fantastic lifestyle opportunities. The ability to work remotely and to move to regional areas also has been a contributing factor in supporting housing affordability, as the pressure in capital cities will be somewhat mitigated. 

Due to ultra-low interest rates, the housing market is reaching new highs with further price increases projected. Consequently, this will make dwellings less affordable when including the required deposit and closing costs. While internal migration to regional areas somewhat mitigates the problem, there is still a major undersupply of family suitable properties in popular areas with proximity to the major employment hubs. 

High-rise apartments are not considered to be a fully substitutable product to houses and townhouses, and therefore will not materially impact the demand for houses. Housing affordability is likely to remain a chronic issue particularly in Greater Sydney, Greater Melbourne as well as popular areas in south-east Queensland. 

However, it is likely that strong price increases will encourage APRA to watch the housing market closely, particularly given record low interest rates, high household debt, and signs of some revival in borrowing for speculative purposes. It should be noted that strong investor activity is perceived by the RBA as ‘speculation’ that increases the risks to financial stability. Consequently, any major increase in investor activity is likely to trigger the reintroduction of macroprudential measures by APRA, at a certain point in time. 

Population growth, as projected, has been reduced substantially and there will be significant reduction in total population growth due to low external migration, with Net Overseas Migration (NOM) in FY21 is expected to drop to -71,600 people, for Australia's first experience of negative NOM since 1946. This negative trend is forecast to continue in FY22 and only gradually return to pre-COVID levels from FY23 onwards. The reduction in overseas migration has and will continue to have a major impact on rental apartments that have already experienced increased vacancy rates and lower demand from investors. 

In the immediate term, there are higher risks in the rental apartment segment, that are likely to result in price reductions across the country, particularly in heavily supplied areas in Melbourne, and to a lesser extent in Sydney. These markets may be more volatile due to the high proportion of property investors and high levels of external migration. There is a renewed interest in the high risk off-the-plan units, due to generous government concessions and the perceived opportunity to buy at, allegedly, low prices. 

However, off-the-plan units carry a high level of risk mainly as buyers, including property investors, shift demand towards detached houses. Uncertainty in relation to external migration further increases the risk. 

The unit rental market overall remains relatively weak. The decline in unit rents was largely concentrated around the inner-city markets of Melbourne and Sydney, contributing to a city-wide drop of 7.6 per cent and 5.7 per cent respectively over the year. Unit rents also fell 4.6 per cent across the combined capital city unit market. 

This increases serviceability risk (particularly in the short term) due to the combination of continued high supply of units, preference for houses in capital cities and regional areas, and uncertainty related to the rental demand largely driven by young renters and migrants.  

Serviceability risk already has and will continue to have a significant impact on investor demand for high-rise units, as investors are very responsive to out-of-pocket expenses. 

Therefore, both equity risk and cash flow risk for rental apartments, remain relatively high.

Pete Wargent 
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The housing market has shifted from a buyer’s market to a seller’s one, where fear of missing out (FOMO) has become a major factor

Ultra-low interest rates and 'FOMO' drive dwelling values to new highs with double-digit growth on the horizon: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT INSIGHT

This is largely conjecture, but as Sydney's rental market is steadily righting itself, Melbourne's inner city unit market may need to see rents falling by 50 per cent to fill up the empty units left in the wake of the repeated border closures and lockdowns. 

New South Wales is taking three times as many arrivals as Victoria through quarantine, which may be a part of the equation.

But just as pertinently the on again/off again closures and snap lockdowns will likely see thousands averting Victoria and heading to sunny south-east Queensland instead (and who can blame them?), especially as employers have become more open to the work from home phenomenon.

To be sure this is a rough and ready thesis, but I've seen parts of Noosa Shire with effectively zero rental vacancies lately, and without looking into it too deeply I wouldn't mind a bet that Gold Coast is heading in a similar direction.

A quick straw poll search of realestate.com.au for rental advertisements by Central Business District postcode shows:

<ul>
<li>Hobart TAS 7000 - 31 results</li>
	<li>Perth WA 6000 - 177 results</li>
	<li>Brisbane QLD 4000 - 384 results</li>
	<li>Sydney NSW 2000 - 437 results</li>
	<li>Adelaide SA 5000 - 487 results</li>
	<li>Melbourne VIC 3000 - 3,974 results</li>
</ul>
Granted this is lazy and half-baked analysis, but I also reckon it's pretty much indicative of the reality. 

If you include the city and its surrounding suburbs Melbourne blows out to 12,708 results, versus 2,309 for Sydney CBD and fringe, and 1,957 for Brisbane. 

That can only mean falling rents for Melbourne CBD and its immediate surrounds. 

A potential 50 per cent drop in rents is far from hyperbole: the 12-month change in asking rents for units in the Melbourne 3000 postcode is -33.3 per cent, according to SQM Research data.

For units in Docklands in Melbourne the 12-month change is -31.4 per cent.

Melbourne's loss is Queensland's gain. 
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Melbourne's inner city unit market may need to see rents falling by 50 per cent to fill up the empty units left in the wake of the repeated border closures and lockdowns

Melbourne's ongoing rental strife will lead to falling rents: Pete Wargent

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EXPERT INSIGHT

First homebuyers commitments hit the highest level since the Rudd stimulus of 2009 in November 2020, as Victoria rebounded strongly post-lockdown.

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/fhb_commitments_jan.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="329" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/fhb_commitments_jan.jpg?itok=YCZS6Qwy" width="580"></a></figure>Owner-occupier lending is exceptionally strong in New South Wales, Queensland, and Western Australia.

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/ex-refinancing_jan.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="338" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/ex-refinancing_jan.jpg?itok=NpRBYFsH" width="580"></a></figure>And, as expected, investment lending is now increasing, up by 6 per cent in November to be higher than a year ago, also driven by strength in New South Wales and Queensland. 

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/ex-refinancing_2_jan.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="328" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/ex-refinancing_2_jan.jpg?itok=1JdKns_K" width="580"></a></figure>RBA research showed that a permanent 100 basis point decline in the cash rate would likely result in a 30 per cent increase in real housing prices after about three years, which looks eminently possible from these figures, with supply-constrained markets with a concentration of investors seeing the largest effect.
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First home buyer commitments hit the highest level since the Rudd stimulus of 2009 in November 2020

Housing lending surges to record high off Victorian rebound post lockdown

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Reserve Bank assets have continued to increase to $319 billion as at mid-December. 

But as money growth scaled fresh cycle highs of 12.4 per cent in November, credit growth continued to slump to new cycle lows of just 1.7 per cent. 

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/credit_v_money_warg_1.jpg" rel="gallery-all"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="331" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/credit_v_money_warg_1.jpg?itok=9hlONLhn" width="580"></a></figure>Business credit growth was negative again in November, as it was in October, and there's been little need for personal credit to grow lately as stimulus (in fact personal credit growth has crashed deeply into negative territory this year). 

Housing credit growth continued to move up to a 17-month high, but overall will be more modest in this cycle with interest-only loans outstanding having been crunched lower from $580 billion to around $260 billion. 

To date the growth has been all about owner-occupiers, with this cohort recording +5.4 per cent credit growth over the year to November 2020. 

The housing credit impulse already points to higher housing prices in the first quarter of 2021. 

With enquiries from investors suddenly jumping in December housing credit growth will likely rise further, in turn igniting double digit gains for property prices (base case).
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As money growth scaled fresh cycle highs of 12.4 per cent in November, credit growth continued to slump to new cycle lows of just 1.7 per cent. 

Pete Wargent

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