<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
Australia’s robust population growth will continue to underpin property prices for decades to come.
Read any government or not-for-profit commissioned reports into the future of Australia and you’ll likely notice one key trend – population growth is forecast to remain strong.
Australia’s population surpassed 23.7 million in January after significant growth over the past 15 years. 
A recent report from The Australia Institute found that since the year 2000, Australia has increased in size by 4.7 million people.
This represents about a 25% rise in the country’s population and equates to adding a new city the size of Canberra every year, the report by the Canberra-based think tank found.
This has undoubtedly helped fuel dwelling prices over that time.
With the exception of Sydney, all of Australia’s capital cities have recorded annual compound house price growth of more than 7% in the same period. Of course, as we know, the Sydney market is experiencing boom time conditions now.
<div>
<table style="width: 302px;"><tbody>
<tr>
<td class="gen10243" nowrap width="113">
City
</td>
<td class="gen1024f" width="189">
15-year compound annual value change (houses)*
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="gen10267" width="113">
Sydney
</td>
<td class="gen10271" width="189">
6.6%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="gen10267" width="113">
Melbourne
</td>
<td class="gen10271" width="189">
8.3%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="gen10267" width="113">
Brisbane
</td>
<td class="gen10271" width="189">
8.1%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="gen10267" width="113">
Adelaide
</td>
<td class="gen10271" width="189">
7.5%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="gen10267" width="113">
Perth
</td>
<td class="gen10271" width="189">
8.6%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="gen10267" width="113">
Hobart
</td>
<td class="gen10271" width="189">
7.8%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="gen10267" width="113">
Canberra
</td>
<td class="gen10271" width="189">
7.7%
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="gen10308" width="113">
Darwin
</td>
<td class="gen10312" width="189">
7.2%
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
</div>
Source: CoreLogic RPData *15 years to January 2015.
According to many forecasts, Australia’s high rate of population growth over the past 15 years will continue.
The Federal Government’s recent Intergenerational Report predicts that about 40 million people will call Australia home by the year 2054. Similar estimates have also been forecast by The Australia Institute.
This equates to population growth of about 1.3% per year – about half of this growth will be driven by net oversea migration with the remainder comprising natural growth (births less deaths).
Subsequently, Australia will need to add more than 9 million new homes – double the current housing stock – to meet the population demand, according to the Master Builders Association.
What’s more noteworthy, though, is that almost all of these people are expected to live in Australia’s capital cities.
Melbourne and Perth will experience the biggest increases in population growth over the coming decades, according to The Australia Institute report released in March.
Perth’s population is tipped to nearly triple by the year 2061 with the addition of 3.5 million residents. The city’s population is expected to reach 5.5 million people, which would surpass that of Brisbane’s of about 4.9 million, and make it Australia’s third largest capital.
The report also found that Melbourne is forecast to surpass Sydney as the most populace capital city in Australia.
The Victorian capital is predicted to grow to 8.6 million residents by 2061, compared to Sydney with 8.5 million people.
This rapid population growth, in already sprawled metropolitan zones, will continue to drive demand for land and, in turn, apply upwards pressure on house prices
While there will be ebbs and flows in house values over the decades ahead, the ultimate trend will be an increase in prices. 
<img src="/images/2015/05/28/collins.jpeg" alt="">
Source: The Australia Institute, Population Growth in Australia
 
Damian Collins is managing director of Momentum Wealth, a Perth based property investment consultancy firm. You can contact him <a href="https://www.momentumwealth.com.au/blog/" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

DamianCollins-BiwU8NaWEC

Population growth will drive house prices: Damian Collins

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
It is shaping up to be the year of the buyer as favourable market conditions create an opportune time for investors in Western Australia.
While capital growth is widely tipped to be moderate in the Perth property market for the year ahead, the next 12 months will provide a good platform for investors to build their property portfolios for several reasons.
Firstly, we can be confident that finance will remain cheap as interest rates stay at record lows. The large majority of industry analysts are predicting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will not hike rates this year.
Secondly, we have seen a 28% increase in housing stock available in Perth over the past year with the number of listings surpassing 13,000 at the end of 2014.
This provides investors with a much wider choice and buyers are more likely to find a better suited property to their needs.
Thirdly, given the softer outlook for the Perth property market, many buyers will delay their decision to acquire a dwelling until conditions improve.
This simply boils down to human nature as many investors take a herd mentality and become discouraged when the market isn’t recording robust capital growth.
As many buyers delay a property purchase, those that do choose to invest in property will encounter less competition.
Subsequently, investors can get more bang for their buck or are able to secure properties for less, or even below asking price, as reduced competition means buyers are less likely to be forced to outbid others.
Finally, buyers in softer markets will have more control over contract negotiations as less competition means they can be more demanding of sellers. We are already seeing great properties being purchased at fair prices.
While we don’t expect huge capital growth for the Perth property market, the fact is that cheap finance, higher stock levels and reduced competition means buyers will have the upper hand.
The long-term fundamentals for Perth remain very strong. It is forecast to have the fastest growing population and fastest growing economy over the next 10 years.
Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”.
Those who make the most of the current favourable conditions and invest wisely in the next 12 months will be best placed to take advantage of the next upswing in the property market.
Damian Collins is the founder and managing director of <a href="https://www.momentumwealth.com.au/" target="_blank">Momentum Wealth</a>, a Perth-based property consultancy that specialises in building the long-term wealth of its clients by assisting in the strategic selection, financing, acquisition, development and management of their investment properties.
</body></html>

Conditions favouring buyers in Perth: Damian Collins

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
Half of Perth’s metropolitan councils are dragging their heels in meeting the Western Australian government’s urban infill development targets, according to a progress report.
One of the key aims of the state government’s planning blueprint Directions 2031, which was released in 2011, was to increase housing densities to slow Perth’s urban sprawl and accommodate 3.5 million people.
As part of the measures, the WA government set a long-term urban infill target of 47%, which means 47% of new residential developments must be built within established suburbs in the two decades to 2031.
However a report card on the blueprint released by the state government recently revealed that just two (Claremont and Kwinana) of the 32 local councils were currently meeting the target.
It found that 14 councils were tracking towards the target while 16 councils, or 50%, were stuck in the ‘early planning phase’.
<img src="/images/2015/02/23/collions-feb-23-one.jpg" alt="">
Source: Directions 2031, Damian Collins.
Local councils falling behind the target include Subiaco, Cambridge, Melville, Nedlands, Canning and South Perth, among others.
The report stated: “These initial figures suggest that there would have to be a significant increase in residential infill development over the next three years if short-term infill targets are going to be met.”
Although Directions 2031 is a 20-year plan, local councils need to start taking substantial action now in order to meet the state government’s target.
While I acknowledge that Perth councils have been distracted by the WA government’s failed amalgamations agenda, some councils have simply sat on their hands purely because they’re against higher density.
However, if Perth is to adequately accommodate and manage its rapidly growing population, a concerted effort is needed by all local councils to offer a mix of housing options.
Councils need to create their own planning schemes to meet the objectives of Directions 2031, including rezoning to allow high-density housing in strategic areas of their precincts, including around transport hubs and shopping and activity centres.
The report card on Directions 2031 was released just months after the Western Australian Planning Commission (WAPC) revealed that Perth’s infill rate was actually declining, despite the push to increase infill developments.
The WAPC report, using the latest figures available, found that the infill rate dropped to 28% in 2012, down from 32% in the previous year.
Failing to meet the infill targets will only increase pressure on Perth’s public infrastructure, particularly its road networks, and force more people to live on the urban fringe.
Damian Collins is the founder and managing director of <a href="https://www.momentumwealth.com.au/" target="_blank">Momentum Wealth</a>, a Perth-based property consultancy that specialises in building the long-term wealth of its clients by assisting in the strategic selection, financing, acquisition, development and management of their investment properties.
</body></html>

Perth councils falling behind infill targets: Damian Collins

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
Most property investors usually aspire to building a portfolio of more than one investment property.
However statistics show that the large majority of Australian property investors (72%) own only one investment property – so what’s holding them back from buying more?
Most investors don’t understand the key seven steps they need to follow in order to set themselves apart from the average investor.
<ol>
<li>
The first step to building a property portfolio is to develop a long-term plan on how you will achieve your property aims. Creating and following a property investment plan is a simple yet effective way to help you reach your goals. Developing a well thought out plan is key to achieving success in any facet of life, whether it be in your career, sporting event or personal ambition, and property investment is no different. The aim of a thorough property investment plan is to outline what you have to do in order to achieve your goals in the shortest possible time. Your plan should cover your risk profile, current situation and financial capacity. From there you should develop a long-term plan identifying the types of properties that are suited to your portfolio, the estimated time frames you can achieve those goals and what steps you need to take to achieve them. It is also important to break those big goals into smaller steps and develop a specific action plan to achieve them. 
</li>
<li>
Once you have developed a plan, the second step is to organise your finances to enable you to purchase an investment property. Most banks and brokers do not know how to structure loans in order for property investors to build large portfolios. Make sure you deal with a broker who specialises with investors and who understands the dangers of cross collateralisation. 
</li>
<li>
The third step is to acquire your investment property. This part is crucial, as the performance of the property you choose will have a significant impact on the time frame you can purchase your next property. Choosing an investment property requires substantial research into markets around Australia and also detailed analysis of suburbs and the individual property. If you don’t have substantial time and energy to dedicate to the process, then consider using a buyer’s agent to help you. 
</li>
<li>The forth step in building a property portfolio is to look at ways you can add value to your existing property. Rather than wait for the market to increase in value, savvy investors look to add value to their properties through renovations or development, which speeds up the wealth creation process. </li>
<li>
The fifth step is to effectively manage your property to achieve maximum returns. Unfortunately, many investors will choose the cheapest property manager. Ultimately you get what you pay for and a good property manager should be up to date with market rent reviews and be able to give you advice on ways you can cost effectively add value to the property in order to generate higher rents. 
</li>
<li>
The sixth step is to work on your property education. If you have good advisors who can help you with the first five steps, then you don’t need to become an expert in property. However, it is still your money being invested and I’d always recommend you have some level of knowledge, as it will help you be more confident in your advisor’s recommendations. 
</li>
<li>
The seventh step is to regularly review your portfolio. Sometimes along your property journey you may find that some of your properties are no longer suited to your investment criteria, or the property is no longer a good investment. Too many investors hold onto unsuitable properties. A regular review and honest analysis will help you make the right decisions.
</li>
</ol>
If you follow the seven step strategy, then your next property purchase shouldn’t be too far away.
When you are ready to buy again, that’s the time to review and update your property investment plan and start the seven step process to help you continue to build your property portfolio.
Fast facts:
<ul>
<li>72% of property investors who own one property</li>
<li>18% of property investors who own two properties</li>
<li>5% of property investors who own three properties</li>
<li>2% of property investors who own four properties</li>
<li>1% of property investors who own five properties</li>
<li>1% of property investors who own six or more properties</li>
</ul>
Source: Australian Taxation office
Damian Collins is the founder and managing director of <a href="https://www.momentumwealth.com.au/" target="_blank">Momentum Wealth</a>, a Perth-based property consultancy that specialises in building the long-term wealth of its clients by assisting in the strategic selection, financing, acquisition, development and management of their investment properties.
</body></html>

The seven steps to beat the odds and build a large property portfolio

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
The declining rate of infill housing in Perth means that a state government backflip on residential design codes would be detrimental to the city’s future development, leading to a restriction in housing choice and further urban sprawl.
Perth’s infill rate, that is residential developments within established suburbs compared to greenfield areas, dropped to 28% in 2012 - down from 32% in the previous year.
The figures, which were recently published by the Western Australian Planning Commission’s (WAPC) Urban Growth Monitor report, fall extraordinarily short of the long-term infill target of 47%.
This target was set as part of the state government’s strategic development plan, Directions 2031 and Beyond, and created to slow Perth’s urban sprawl as the city’s population is expected to balloon substantially in the years ahead.
The fact that the city’s infill rate is far below the long-term target, and more critically, that the rate is actually declining, demonstrates that calls from the WAPC to cut the number of dwellings allowed on certain properties would further undermine Perth’s development strategy.
The WAPC is seeking ministerial approval to effectively reverse a 2010 amendment to residential design codes that significantly increased the number of dwellings allowed on properties zoned R-30 and R-35.
The amendment cleared the way for up to 10 units to be built on 1,000 square metre blocks that are zoned R-30, up from just three units previously.
The move to scrap the amendment is in response to concerns about the impact on predominately single dwelling or grouped dwelling neighbourhoods.
<blockquote>
Fast Facts:
32% – The historical net infill housing rate in Perth 47% – The long-term housing infill target rate 59% – Portion of infill developments with one dwelling (2011-2012)
</blockquote>
While I agree that medium or high density housing should not be on every street on every suburb, if the WAPC’s calls are granted, then it simply gives the green light for councils to further resist development in established areas, producing and exacerbating problems for the wider community.
If the state government was to backflip on these reforms it would only put further downward pressure on Perth’s development infill rate and make it very difficult to reach the infill target of 47%.
Subsequently, housing choice in established suburbs would be significantly diminished, more people would be forced to live on the urban fringe and housing values would be impacted.
While it is understandable that some might hold concerns about increased traffic in medium and high-density areas, studies have found that building such developments near public transport generally have minimal impact.
Furthermore, if managed and designed properly, a 10 unit development can be smaller in size than three townhouses on one lot.
If Perth is going to accommodate a rapidly growing population, which increasingly wants to live near work and amenities, we simply can’t afford for the urban sprawl to continue indefinitely.
<img src="/images/2014/10/27/collins-oct-17-one.jpg" alt="">
Damian Collins is the founder and managing director of <a href="https://www.momentumwealth.com.au/" target="_blank">Momentum Wealth</a>, a Perth-based property consultancy that specialises in building the long-term wealth of its clients by assisting in the strategic selection, financing, acquisition, development and management of their investment properties.
</body></html>

Perth risks indefinite urban sprawl with new residential zoning proposals

<html><body>
Guest observation
After solid growth in 2013, the Perth property market has plateaued in recent months – but what's on the horizon?
The median house price in metropolitan Perth jumped more than 9% in 2013 to a record $550,000, while the median unit price increased 7% to $450,000.
Admittedly though, the Perth property market has this year moved into an overall holding pattern.
Figures to the June quarter 2014 show the median unit price has remained unchanged while the median house price eased back from its record peak to $540,000.
Despite the sluggish market, we continue to see demand for properties with longer-term development potential and prices for these dwellings are rising. For example, in Forrestfield where there is proposed rezoning, the median price has increased by 9.9% over the past 12 months.
Overall, there is a slight shortage of listings with about 10,800 properties for sale compared to a balanced market of 12,000 to 13,000.
With the end of September upon us, we can expect a raft of fresh quarterly data to be released within the coming days and weeks, which will no doubt provide a clearer picture of the Perth property market in 2014.
Some early signs have hinted at improving conditions, albeit slightly.
According to a September quarter <a href="https://www.cciwa.com/docs/default-source/economics/consumer-confidence-september-2014.pdf?sfvrsn=2" target="_blank">consumer confidence survey</a>, published by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Western Australia, attitudes towards the property market have rebounded to the highest point since the December quarter last year.
Similarly, vacancy rates, which increased to 4.1% in the recent June quarter, fell to 4% in August, according to REIWA, while median weekly rent remained unchanged at $450.
If history is any measure to go by, though, we can expect the September quarter data to be patchy as the period is traditionally the softest in the annual cycle.
Looking towards the remainder of the year, however, a pickup in activity in the Perth property market is highly likely as the spring season will see more properties being listed and more likely buyers will emerge.
While Sydney and Melbourne are currently receiving all the attention with robust growth, the longer-term outlook for Perth remains strong.
High population growth and an economy focussed on exports to the fast-growing Asian region mean strong demand for property. While the market may be a little more volatile due to the fluctuations in the mining sector, the long-term outlook remains very positive.
Damian Collins is the founder and managing director of <a href="https://www.momentumwealth.com.au/" target="_blank">Momentum Wealth</a>, a Perth-based property consultancy that specialises in building the long-term wealth of its clients by assisting in the strategic selection, financing, acquisition, development and management of their investment properties.
 
</body></html>

Perth property market tipped to heat up for spring

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVATION
In 2012, the Perth rental market was performing strongly, with rapid increases in rental prices.
With vacancy rates hovering around 2% at the time, many renters were forced to fiercely compete for properties by offering rates well above asking price – even to secure less than ideal properties.
Those conditions led to a steep increase in Perth rental prices, with the median house rent reaching a record high in early 2013 of $480 per week.
Since then, rental market conditions have eased with the current vacancy rate at about 4.1% and the median house rent dropping back to $460 per week.
The increase in vacancy rates has occurred primarily for two reasons. Firstly, more renters are choosing to purchase their own homes as record low interest rates have made buying more attractive.
The move to buy, rather than rent, has also been supported by ongoing state government assistance with first home owner’s in WA eligible to receive up to $10,000 in grants.
Secondly, a slowdown in the state’s mining sector has led to some transient workers leaving Perth as mining companies complete large scale expansion projects.
With Perth’s long-term equilibrium for vacancy rates at about 3%, the current rate of 4.1% is slightly higher than a balanced market.
Despite the slowdown, the Perth property market remains solid with a steady yield of approximately 4 to 4.5%.
The long-term economic future for Perth is still strong and the housing market will continue to perform well in the long term for Perth, albeit with cyclical movements.
One of the main drivers supporting Perth property rentals will be population growth.
The state government’s growth outlook report, <a href="https://www.planning.wa.gov.au/publications/826.asp" target="_blank">Directions 2031</a>, estimates that Perth’s population will increase 35-40% by 2031, which will require 328,000 new dwellings to sufficiently house the population increase. Some private sector forecasters predict much higher population growth.
This will prove to underpin Perth’s property rental price growth in the long-term as well as future housing prices.
Damian Collins is the founder and managing director of <a href="https://www.momentumwealth.com.au/" target="_blank">Momentum Wealth</a>, a Perth-based property consultancy that specialises in building the long-term wealth of its clients by assisting in the strategic selection, financing, acquisition, development and management of their investment properties.
</body></html>

Damian Collins

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News